this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from January 20th to January 26th, 2025 - Viva La Resistance
(hexbear.net)
After 15 months of genocide - and resistance to it - the Israeli regime realized that they could not win a military victory against Hamas, and were forced to sign a humiliating ceasefire in order to get their hostages returned.
With much of Syria under the control of Al-Qaeda, and an increasing level of covert infiltration into Lebanon, the crisis in the Middle East is not over, and we may still be in its beginning stages, as the center of hegemony continues its gradual shift away from the United States. Their navy, once considered the best in the world, is likely also not very happy about their ships and aircraft carriers being forced to retreat by Yemen, one of the poorest countries; and all eyes are on Iran, who has, over the last year and a half, demonstrated a newfound confidence and strength to directly strike Israel.
The recovery for Gaza will take, at a minimum, decades; it could indeed never fully recovery to even how it was before, considering it is not in Israel's interests to see their concentration camps recover. But Hamas has proven to be steadfast and the tunnel network has proven its resilience, despite facing some of the most powerful conventional bombing in history. This shows that Palestine's liberation is a when, not an if; and hopefully a much sooner "when" than expected before October 7th.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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I'd be interested to hear what y'alls analysis of the situation is and what you expect to happen in the next 3-12 months.
Trump has so far
All in all I'd say my evaluation that he'd be better than Kamala on foreign policy (not out of a kind heart, but out of being a big Doofus) and the devil domestically was correct. As contradictions heighten I think we'll see events that make the summer of 2020 look like a warm-up.
Not downplaying what is happening, but a lot of what I see reported about domestic issues isn't really more than what was already developing, it's just getting attention now that the libs are in opposition. Though the persecution of queer people is wild and I had not predicted Elon doing the sieg heil nor the corporate pullback from many institutions that ensured some safety for minorities.
That's scary. I'm lucky I don't live in the us (haven't for years).
From a personal perspective, the Greenland stuff scares me. I've got danish family, until recently I lived in Denmark. I'd like to go back someday.
The Laken Riley Act is some of the most evil bit of domestic legislation I can ever recall - probably worse than any EO Trump has ever signed. It was developed entirely before Trump took office, had significant support from Democrats, and absolutely would have been signed by Biden or Harris.
Yea
Probably exaggerating, I'm not seeing anything
Dun matter, the europeans will stay in line for now
Dun matter, it's not gonna happen, california's economy is completely integrated into the rest of america.
Seems like it, let's see if it holds
I honestly think there won't be any significant uprising in the USA. Trump and MAGA policies are significantly more popular than they were during his first term. Recent Ipsos polling has shown that 66% of US citizens support the deportation of illegal immigrants. However moves like using the US military to deport migrants are significantly less popular. What Trump is going to do now, is to use his newfound popularity to enact legislation that is popular in the US/easy wins, like deporting immigrants convicted of violent crimes, ceasefire deals in armed conflicts, to buy the political and social capital necessary to conduct his more unpopular reforms, like tarrifs or mass deportations. By the time starts doing the stuff that is unpopular, it'll be too late.
Polling on illegal immigration is all over the place, moreso than other polling it is highly dependent on how the questions are phrased. Just using “illegal” versus “undocumented” yields significantly different results. You can have a large number of Americans say it’s a problem at the same time a large number will say there should be a pathway to citizenship. Basically Americans don’t know what to think about it but it’s not a slam dunk “immigration bad” opinion.
You can see how it gets broken down on the two Ipsos polls [they are PDF format files] here. But it's unquestionable that a vast majority of US citizens support the deportation of illegal immigrants with a criminal record (87%) and all illegal immigrants that arrived in the last 4 years (66%). In the second poll that was done a week later, that 66% number then applied to all illegal immigrants, a significant trend upwards from 56% on the first poll. No amount of changing the wording is going to change that, and as we got closer to Trump taking power, support for his policies just went up. Americans want to back a winner quite clearly. The first poll also shows the dissonance between Trump the man and his policies. Many Americans still don't really like Trump as a person, but they support a significant amount of what he wants to do.
Democrats also lost quite heavily on the two transgender related issues that were debated quite a lot in this election cycle, on the issue of transgender women in sports (79% oppose) and the use of puberty blockers in transgender children under 18 years of age (71% oppose). Linking LGBT, and in particular transgender activism, to the Democrat-NGO complex has been an abject failure. This is something many on hexbear, including many of our transgender users based in the USA, have been ringing the alarm bell on for years. It is very unfortunate that they were right...
First poll
Second poll
Is he really that popular? I thought it was just among those who voted, that's wild.
It took four years to reach nationwide riots last time, I don't think it's around the corner, but I think 2 years from now is imaginable.
Isn't it also much more about wether he radicalises his opposition rather than the size of said opposition?
I wouldn't say Trump the man is hugely more popular, but his policies are. Again, according to Ipsos polling, Trump/Republicans were ahead of Harris/Democrats on almost every key issue except abortion.
The opposition is heavily linked to the Democrat-NGO complex, who are never going to resist in meaningful ways, and are in a state of mass defeat. The size of the radical opposition outside of this is insignificant.
Oh okay, so it is just the voters then? That makes it make more sense to me. Yeah the democrats are collapsing.
I understand that Trump and his fucking coterie of failchildren can obviously effect policies of the U.S as individuals, but what is the point of annexing Greenland, Canada,etc.? What is the benefit for business interests? Is there really that many barriers for US capital in Canada and Denmark to warrant the Victoria 2 infamy points from doing this?
It's not about actual annexation, it's Trump's "unique" deal making style
He's known for issuing outright absurd demands on people, then watching the reaction. When they dismiss it, he doubles down on the absurdity until they start to take it as a serious threat. Once the deadline approaches the other party will offer deep concessions that they otherwise never would have, allowing Trump a 2 part victory: he gets more than he wanted and gets to look strong while doing it
What's going to happen is that Denmark will give Trump everything he actually wants with Greenland (mineral rights and Danish subsidized US bases) without actually annexing it
This tactic fails miserably without leverage like having the largest army in the world, of course
I think if Biden did this it would be couched in diplomatic buzz words (security agreement, strategic partnership) but effectively be the same thing. Denmark would still lose more sovereignty but the liberals wouldn't care because it has the ring of sensibility that they adore.
Access to the Arctic Ocean once all the ice melts by 2040, to compete with Russia.
If you look at the Earth from top down, it will become much clearer:
Right now, they only have a small section of shoreline in Alaska, less than Europe, and that is simply not enough for the empire.
Kinda cool how Iceland is just right at the edge of the Arctic circle.
How fucked are we if the ice melts though? Like aren't entire cities going to be flooded
Europe gets a new ice age. And the Greenland icecap crossed the point of no return two years ago. Yay.
I understand the contest for the Arctic. But Denmark and, I'd imagine, Canada are already willing to gut their own nations and ramp up military spending to maintain in good standing as vassals of the empire.
Canada refuses to declare its arctic waters as international waters. It is one of the few things the Canadian state has been divergent from the us capital wishes.
That's not enough for them, just check out the section "American goals of acquisition" on NATOpedia, to get an idea of what the empire is thinking:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposals_for_the_United_States_to_purchase_Greenland
Plenty of sources cited there. They clearly don't trust Denmark to do enough to keep the Arctic in check, and in particular, they fear Greenland becoming independent and subsequently becoming friendly with Russia or China.
Wow, this isn't the expansion of a "healthy" empire, this is cannibalization. One would hope that this would lead to a left anti-atlantacist surge in Europe but, judging from recent politics there, it looks like the response to American imperialism in Europe is fascism.
Canada and Greenland are important for securing the geo strategic future of the United States once the ice melts in the north.
I wouldn't think so, but here we are
Denmark is more likely to just give up greenland than actual war. I do not doubt an not significant amount of danes would remain “pro-Atlanticist” even after such an event.
Denmark is probably not going to give up Greenland without a cost, and it's unclear if that's just going to be money. It could include cancelling the defense treaty they signed with the US just a year ago that allows the US the permanently station troops and weapons in some Danish military bases and stop cooperating with NATO around monitoring/sharing info on sea traffic in and out of the Baltic Sea.
It's not that simple
I'm sure Denmark will remain a lapdog, but I think most other EU members will become more and more uneasy about the spider's web into which they've entangled themselves
If they aren't uneasy at becoming weapon, energy and food dependent, they can chirp all they want.
Which EU member? There are not any that could meaningful act on that uneasiness.
I think the Trump team wants to pump oil and crash energy prices to offset the shocks of the tariffs, basically calling the world's bluff about not moving industry back to the US by pumping 3 million extra barrels a day and convincing the Fed to lower interest rates, leveraging US energy independence to eat Europe's lunch and shine America's boot
Of course for this to work the retail corporations that benefit from lower energy costs need to actually lower some of these goddamn prices and gas stations need to actually hit that under $2.00 sweet spot that makes Americans spend like it's the 90s again, and the Fed needs to cooperate
How does this square with tarrifing Canadian oil?
I'd assume Trump's people have some hair-brained scheme to empty the strategic petroleum reserve to buy time for American shale to expand production and make up the Canadian shortfall
And industrial investment would have to become more appealing than financial speculation, which it won't, and then actual production would have to be more appealing than price speculation, which it won't either.
I expect the Danish government to fold and give Trump everything he asked for without much of a conflict.
Back in 2020 they laughed at him for making such a ridiculous demand, as he lacked the necessary leverage to go through with it. But thanks to dear old Biden being such a good friend to the EU over the past 4 years, Trump now has all he needs to extort Greenland out of them.
The Russian bogeyman has Europeans so spooked, they'll do anything to keep the US in their good graces, even if it means giving up territory. It will be extremely humiliating, but they have no choice.
The issue is that Denmark cannot give Greenland away. It is not theirs to give, and not in a moral sense. It's up to Greenland what it wants to do. It's like when Merkel tried to explain to him that the US couldn't just do a deal with Germany, it had to be all of the EU.
Otherwise I agree yeah. I hate how the european libs joyfully follow the pied piper into a ditch.
As far as Denmark, the EU, the US, and material reality are concerned, Greenland is absolutely Denmark’s (to give if they’re really forced to).
What the constitution has to say about will affect the formalities but at the end of the day this is a political question rather than a legal one.
If the USA wants to take Greenland, Denmark and Europe won’t actually be able to stop them which means a political settlement that gives it away.
I agree that will probably be the end result, i just disagree with the framing that makes it out to be as simple a process as this. Especially when it seems Trump doesn't understand it either.
Edit: pushing for this would completely redefine the US-EU relationship in the public eye as well as make it clear to the average citizen (and hopefully a few politicians) that NATO is just what the warzaw pact was accused of being. And then yes the constitution of a teeny tiny European country would have to be rewritten as well as the constitution of Greenland in order for Denmark to give away Greenland. Which would take time.
There's many loopholes I'm sure, but brute forcing it like you're alluding to would require these things, which could easily become ground zero for a lot of future diplomatic problems for the US.
Maybe Greenland votes to join the us, that's a much easier process than brute force. Maybe it becomes unofficial us territory, that's also possible. But the way Trump seems to go about it (and the way I see most users here talk about) would, as it appears to me, be taking the path of most resistance.
Oh yeah absolutely, he's not being subtle about it at all.
However, this isn't the first time the USA has sought to acquire Greenland: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposals_for_the_United_States_to_purchase_Greenland
I think he's putting the pressure on now because there has never been a more opportune time for the USA to pursue this goal. Europe is scared shitless of Russia, with it looking like it will win the war in Ukraine, and if Trump manages to convince Denmark and Greenland that they'll be given additional security guarantees along with a nice sum of money, he might be able to pull off a deal. And we know that Trump loves his deals.
As for the moral aspect -- we are talking about a country that is currently funding a genocide that has killed more people than the entire population of Greenland -- under the "good guys" no less. You know it doesn't really matter.
The public eye is primarily liberals, and they are easily swayed by propaganda. The moment Trump is out of office again, they will go right back to cheerleading for the US. They already rehabilitated Bush and Cheney, they will rationalize this too. "But we needed to protect the world from Russia..."
And after all, there is a precedent they can call back to: In 1917 the US bought parts of the Virgin Islands from Denmark: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Virgin_Islands
Good response, but you misunderstood me about morals. I mentioned them to underline that the difficulty is not about morals, in other words: they don't matter.
The sale of the virgin islands doesn't really function as a precedent since they weren't autonomous like Greenland is. Danish law is also Napoleonic, not common, so presence isn't as big of a deal.
I meant precedent more in the sense of "what the media can sell to people", not in terms of what's legal.
You're right though, the autonomous nature of Greenland does make this much more difficult for the USA to pull off without military action.
At the same time, the idea of it becoming independent and distancing itself from the USA is probably one of the main reasons they want to acquire it in the first place.
Oh yeah that makes much more sense!
Should this be a post of its own? I'm a bit unclear on what the current rules of top level comments are.