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If the US gets into WW3 before Trump’s inauguration, can Biden declare himself as the war president through martial law?

Can't wait for US Marines to get clapped by the Dutch Army as they try to invade The Hague

Do we have anymore info on the Oreshnik missile? I counted about 18 distinct hits by counting the flashes on the ground which is a lot more than wikipedia mentions for MIRVs. I'm seeing a few people speculate that the missiles might have been empty and relied on the kinetic energy for damage. Out of curiosity I tried to calculate what that would be but gave up since there were too many unknowns involved. I hate to give up on a calculation once I start so for some resolution I decided to calculate how much KE if you fired elon musk into the ground at mach 20. Wikipedia says non-relativistic KE is 1/2 m x (v)^2 and I assumed musk weighs 90kg so at mach 20 (6860m/s) and 90kg I converted to lb's of TNT. Using elon musk as a hypersonic missile would be = 1102.31 lb's of TNT.

After signing 37 bilateral trade deals, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave Brazil's President Lula da Silva with a gift: a piece of the Moon collected by the Chang'e-5 during China's, 2020 Lunar exploration mission.

Educational post: here we will debunk the myth of China’s dollar-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia for those who are interested in learning about how the system actually works, and those who need a little help with connecting the dots.

A few months ago, some multipolar bloggers were jumping up and down about Saudi Arabia “ending its 50-year petrodollar contract” and how that is going to “end dollar hegemony” (I already wrote a whole post debunking that). Today we see the same people saying that China issuing dollar-denominated bonds in Saudi Arabia is actually genius and how that’s going to “end dollar hegemony”. So which one is it?

The answer is neither, and far simpler than you think. But to even be able to answer this question, we need to learn a bit about the fundamentals of the financial system, and especially to debunk the many misconceptions about the role of US treasury.

Don’t worry, I have deliberately stripped all technical jargons from this post, so anyone will be able to understand even if you know nothing about banking and finance. This post is meant to be educational - I firmly believe that learning about how the economy and the financial system operate can shield us from falling for right wing propaganda, and that is my goal of spending many hours writing this post here.

First, let’s lay out the main misconceptions that have been perpetuated on social media about the China’s dollar bond in Saudi Arabia, and what questions do we need to answer:

1. The misconception that the US government is financed by its treasury bonds (China is issuing dollar bonds at nearly the same rates, so investors will buy China bonds instead of US treasury bonds, so the US government can no longer finance its spending)
   • Question: What is the role of US treasuries?
2. A wild extrapolation that a $2 billion bond issuance somehow serves as a prelude to China issuing a $100 billion dollar bond which will then subvert the entire US treasury market.
   • Question: What can a $100 billion dollar bond do if China issues that?
3. The mental gymnastics involved to craft a narrative about why China issuing its bond in dollar in Saudi Arabia is actually good and that somehow is going to help the BRI countries pay back their dollar debt.
   • Questions: What is the intent behind China issuing dollar-denominated bond in Saudi Arabia? Can it really help Belt and Road countries pay back their dollar debt?

Let’s go through this point by point.

What is the role of US treasuries?

Some combat footage from Russia’s special military operation.

Yesterday’s Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile MIRV strike on the Kiev regime’s Yuzhmash military factory in Dnepropetrovsk, in response to recent US-ordered “ATACMS” and “Storm Shadow” missile strikes on Kursk and Bryansk oblasts: https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Oreshnik_YT:7

The hypersonic Oreshnik flying toward its target, yesterday: https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/hypersonic-Oreshnik.mp4?_=3

Russian drone strikes another US-built M1A1 “Abrams” tank in Kursk oblast: https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/abrams.mp4

Russian drone destroys a Kiev regime ammunition depot in Kursk oblast: https://s5.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/destroys-Ukrainian-ammunition-dump.mp4?_=4

Right winger got arrested in Algeria upon arrival: (used google translate with some corrections)

Sansal, a puppet of the anti-Algerian revisionist movement [Arabic]

Algeria - The comical uproar raised by some French political and intellectual circles over the case of Boualem Sansal is further evidence of the existence of a “hateful” movement against Algeria. It is a lobby that does not miss any opportunity to question Algerian sovereignty.
The arrest of Boualem Sansal, the alleged intellectual revered by the French far right, has also awakened the professionals of indignation. The anti-Algerian and pro-Zionist names in Paris have risen up as one man: Eric Zemmour, Mohamed Sifaoui, Marine Le Pen, Xavier Driencourt, Valéry Pécras, Jack Lang, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, and of course Tahar Ben Jelloun, his Moroccan friend who is recovering from sciatica from bending over to kiss the hand of his King Mohammed VI. They have all come to the forefront to defend this professional revisionist who has fallen into the trap of his own doing.

The article is from the Algerian Press Service, which is owned by the Algerian government, no their articles aren't like this usually.

Highlights from the list of people who have been indicted by the Supreme Court for planning various coups and the assassination of Lula and Alexandre de Moraes:

Alexandre Ramagem (federal deputy, former director-general of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin, Brazil's CIA) and Federal Police (Brazil's FBI) delegate, attempted to be Rio de Janeiro's Mayor, but lost to popular pro-Lula Liberal Eduardo Paes, who won the elections with 60% of the votes)

Carlos Cesar Moretzsohn Rocha (an engineer hired by the PL (Liberal Party, Bolsonaro's Party) to question the vulnerability of electronic ballot boxes during the 2022 elections. An engineer who claims to be the 'inventor' of the electronic voting machine.)

Filipe Garcia Martins (former advisor to the Presidency of the Republic who took part in the meeting that dealt with the coup draft, known white supremacist)

Fernando Cerimedo (Argentine businessman who made a live broadcast questioning the security of the electronic ballot boxes during the 2022 elections)

Guilherme Marques de Almeida (lieutenant colonel and former commander of the 1st Psychological Operations Battalion in Goiânia who fainted when the knocked on his door)

José Eduardo de Oliveira e Silva (priest of the Osasco diocese, Transphobic, said he “missed the days when the toilet was only for physiological needs” and suggested that the pharmaceutical industry create “a tranquilizer in the form of a suppository”. Has a huge fetish on anal stuff?!)

Paulo Renato de Oliveira Figueiredo Filho (businessman and grandson of former dictator João Figueiredo)

Tércio Arnaud Tomaz (former advisor to Bolsonaro and considered one of the pillars of the so-called “hate cabinet”, owner of the facebook page “Bolsonaro Opressor” who gained visibility. He used it to attack, through memes, the opponents of the then federal deputy, as well as praising Bolsonaro.)

Valdemar Costa Neto (president of PL (Liberal Party), the party for which Jair Bolsonaro and Braga Netto contested the 2022 elections)

The Romanian presidential election is coming up this Sunday, as far as I am aware nobody here has said a single thing about it so far and I must say it's probably better that way. While many romanians love to make fun of the US and how much of a charade its "democracy" is I genuinely believe Romania might have the most stagnant political scene and the most transparently undemocratic "democracy" in Europe. There are 14 candidates and they all either range from center-right to George "" Simion.

@RomCom1989@hexbear.net tovarăș, what are your thoughts on this upcoming election? That is if you have any, I would not blame you if you didn't, this country's internal politics are so stagnant and geopolitically irrelevant I didn't even know an election was happening until someone told me about it yesterday.

A spokesperson for the German regime said they will only definitely decide whether or not they would arrest Netanyahu or Gallant if/when they plan on coming to Germany, but he said arresting them would be "hard to imagine". ^tagesschau^

So they have definitely decided they will not arrest Netanyahu but don't want come right out and say that.

Project 2025 guy is now in charge of OMB https://bsky.app/profile/briantylercohen.bsky.social/post/3lbl7ujds422a

This article isn't really news but it talks about Stalin the gardener so maybe of interest here. It is the weird expat living in Russia version of the "in my day, we wore an onion on our belts, it was the style of the times"

https://johnhelmer.org/gardening-against-evil-days/

To steal is a venal sin but in Russia not a mortal one. It was common in Russia, not only during Yeltsin’s time in the Kremlin, but after. It continues for me. Venal sins can be repented, reversed, compensated. But to ruin a garden is a mortal sin. No punishment fits that crime.

Helmer is a cranky old man but I still like reading his columns when I have time

So following the whole german thing they did have a news brief today and it's about 20 minutes of them dodging the question looking extremely incompetent and getting somewhat agitated I might actually do some translations of that segment but for people who can speak german here ya go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRl3X5nN4R4

Translation might happen but I am busy so could also just not happen...

Edit: Ate something doing a few comments from the start so might pick it up again at some point

Herr Jung: Mr. Wagner, before we move on to the appointments, I’d like to address the topic of the International Criminal Court because it has been signaled as a matter of significant interest.

Wagner: Mr. Jung, you may start.

J: I read your press release regarding this arrest warrant, and it states that the federal government will carefully examine the domestic steps to be taken. However, this leaves open whether the federal government considers the decision of the International Criminal Court binding. Could you clarify this?

W: I don’t need to clarify it; I can simply refer to what’s stated in the declaration.

J: Yes, but the declaration doesn’t include what you told us here, for example, in May. Back then, you said Germany would, of course, implement all decisions of the International Criminal Court and abide by law and order. That was clear in May. Today’s statement, however, doesn’t include that, whereas other European states have explicitly said this arrest warrant will be implemented.

W: I can still only refer to what is stated in this declaration, and that stands.

J: Mr. Hebestreit, on the same topic, can one interpret this as the federal government doing everything to prevent a situation where an Israeli minister—such as Prime Minister Netanyahu—could be arrested in Germany? That’s how it reads.

Hebestreit: That is an interpretation you are drawing from the text. I refer to the text itself, and that forms the basis of our actions.

J: Perhaps I could ask again: why is it so difficult for the federal government to state—given our historical context—that while we support the International Criminal Court in this case, it would be unthinkable for us to arrest an Israeli prime minister in Germany? That would seem justifiable, wouldn’t it?

W: I understand your point. This is precisely why we issued a declaration that addresses the two conditions we must consider. One is the importance of the International Criminal Court, which we strongly support. The other is the historical responsibility you mentioned. So, this statement should be viewed in light of these two aspects. I might even go so far as to say that I find it difficult to imagine us carrying out an arrest in Germany under these circumstances.

Herr Wackelt?: Is Mr. Netanyahu welcome in Germany?

H: I’m not aware of any travel plans by the Israeli Prime Minister.

W: I wasn’t asking about travel plans; I was asking whether he is welcome.

H: I have no current requests from the office of the Israeli Prime Minister for him to visit Germany, so I don’t need to comment further on this.

Frau Pauli: Just briefly, did I understand correctly—it’s difficult for you to carry out an arrest on this basis? So, on...

H: [Interrupts] No, that would be...

P: Or on what basis could you carry out an arrest?

H: Let me be very precise. I said it’s hard for me to imagine that, on this basis... That’s something entirely different...

P: Yes, that’s why I’m asking for clarification. So precisely.

H: It’s hard for me to imagine that an arrest would be carried out in Germany on this basis.

P: But on what basis? There’s the International Criminal Court, which has issued an international arrest warrant. Germany recognizes this court, and... yes, then there’s a problem because it concerns Israel and Germany’s historical responsibility or obligation toward Israel. But this press release doesn’t provide any indication of how the federal government would act if Netanyahu were to come to Germany. And now we can all ask this question ten more times, and the answer probably won’t change, but it still isn’t an answer.

H: I think it is, but we can certainly have different opinions on that.

P: Sure. [Laughs while Hebestreit does a Nazi smirk]

Frau Jäckels: You’ve had months to prepare for this scenario. Has no one in the Federal Chancellery or the Foreign Office thought about the consequences? Why does this still need to be examined now?

[Long Pause looking at each other]

H: I.... I don't understand the question

J: It’s been clear for some time that this scenario could arise—that there could be arrest warrants issued for Netanyahu and Gallant. Why is this still being examined now? You could have addressed this long ago.

H: I still don’t understand what you’re getting at.

J: It’s a very straightforward question. You’re now saying the federal government will examine how to implement this decision. But why does this still need to be examined? You could have been preparing for this scenario for months. It’s been clear that this could happen, and even likely that it would.

H: Well, the question is whether it was likely. But there’s no urgency here. So, let’s move on now.

This is only like the first 10 minutes this goes on for 30 minutes I might do the rest because there's more shit there but yeah. Like "Oh there's urgency no rush how to deal with this." in the face of Genocide deeply unserious country led by unserious people.

Edit edit: This is like 5 minutes actually out of 25 minutes but my brain is starting to leak so give me a break they say a bunch of other shit but apparently germany does not recognize the ICC. They are incredibly smug and don't think it necessary to defend the right of the ICC or human rights since Israel now thinks the ICC has no right to exist. Again all of the people up there are like smug nazis and they are all part of the SPD so take from this what you will.

In the spirit of discussing the Chinese dollar bonds, i’d like to talk about “China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves: Past and Present Security Challenges” by Yu Yongding, published first in July 2022 (so 5 months after Russian forex got seized) and translated here. It concludes, amongst some other things, that “[China] should strive to avoid becoming a creditor as much as possible”.

The internationalization of the RMB is a good for security in the long term, but in the short term “even if China’s foreign exchange reserves consisted entirely of RMB assets, their security would not change.” Why? “Because the key to the problem does not lie in the currency that China’s foreign exchange reserves are denominated and settled in, but in whether China owes the United States money or vice versa.” If the US does not want to service the debt, then China is left in the lurch/ bag-holding even if the $1 trillion US dollars in China’s reserve magically turned into RMB. The security threat outlined in this article is China being stiffed to the tune of trillions, and the security solution outlined is to stop being owed anything. The author repeatedly notes how China’s current foreign exchange reserves generate negative investment returns, largely because they are over-leveraged. Most countries have much smaller reserves of dollars on hand. So Mr. Yu advocates for getting dollars out of the country in a way that generates positive investment income.

But why does China have so many US dollars? Shortly after China’s opening up, “the shortage of foreign exchange was the main bottleneck”. As such, the RMB was devalued sharply. In 2003, financial turmoil caused China to delay the appreciation of the RMB until 2005. As a result of the late appreciation, “China’s trade surplus increased sharply, and, on the other hand, the domestic asset bubble and the strong expectation of RMB appreciation led to a large inflow of ‘hot money’. China’s capital account surplus once exceeded the trade surplus and became the primary source of new foreign exchange reserves. It is fair to say that China’s failure to let the RMB appreciate in time and its lack of exchange rate flexibility were the conditions that led to the country’s excessive accumulation of foreign exchange reserves.”

Why can’t the RMB just replace the dollar? “In short, for the RMB to become an international reserve currency, China must fulfill a series of preconditions, including establishing a sound capital market (especially a deep and highly liquid treasury bond market), a flexible exchange rate regime, free cross-border capital flows, and long-term credit in the market. In short, China must overcome the so-called ‘original sin’ in international finance and be able to issue treasury bonds internationally in RMB. Otherwise, it will be difficult for the RMB to become an international reserve currency and RMB internationalization will remain incomplete.”

China will not do many of those things, because that would be giving up control of the economy to financial markets. But that’s the rub, isn’t it? China can’t establish itself as the world’s reserve currency, not least because its financial institutions are not ‘advanced’ enough. The USA is a decrepit shell that has spent 40 years hollowing itself out to be the best financial market possible. The current proposal seems to be using both of these facts to China’ advantage.

De-dollarization is a non-starter unless the US goes apeshit crazy with SWIFT sanctioning. SDRs are cool, but the World Bank and IMF are USAmerican puppets for shock therapy. A bancor would require a lot of diplomatic work that no one will want to do for a while. Too many debts already exist denominated in dollars. The proposal with re-dollarization is to take advantage of the facts that China has too many dollars and some nice manufactured goods and that most of the Global South has commodities or other inputs for manufacturing and too much dollar debt. The US wants to be the turbo-finance hub of the world. Now, many of us here would argue that’s a broader manifestation of USamerica standing in the role as the current hegemon in a capitalist world and the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. At the ground level though, the finance people are blind dogs chasing blood, and they could not care less from where it flows. If the debts are getting paid, there shouldn’t be anything to complain about. And i personally doubt that the ‘Art of the Deal’ President is going to be some savvy financial genius. i think some guy once said something about capitalists selling the rope to hang themselves. As it is currently argued, China is setting up a win-win-win that slowly de-leverages their oversized dollar reserves and other countries’ debt.

Saudi Arabia may be mostly aligned with the West and the dollar, but that is a role they were forced into, not one they chose. The whole idea of the petrodollar comes from when OPEC tried to grab the “West” by the balls in the 70s and 80s, and then ended up with too much money to do anything with. Cash alone doesn’t do much in the desert. The US won that fight, because the Gulf States ended up recycling all of that money into US debt. Oil price spikes, a global recession, and soaring interest rates were the ingredients in the very first neoliberal shock. Interest rate and currency exchange rate manipulation led to IMF loans conditional on reforms, and the accompanying mass privatization and austerity. The US in 2024 has nowhere near the industrial or political capacity to pull off a second global financialization, mostly because there’s nowhere left in the world that hasn’t already been financialized. Even Russia and China represent financial markets outside the US’ control, not fully untapped markets. After 2008, quantitative easing, and the acceleration of money printing since 2020, domestic investors, banks, and the stock market depend on the federal interest rates in a way they really never have before. The snake is eating its own tail.

If anything, China’s attempts to do literally anything other than buying more US debt represents learning from the 80s. i do not see this as an obvious China L, though it may turn out to be.

Entertainment news: Ana de Armas is apparently dating Diaz-Canel’s stepson lol.

I always knew that she’s a communist based on how she has talked about Cuba unlike the gusanos I’ve spoken to. Also she unfollowed Gal Gadot on instagram after the latter talked about “Hamas atrocities”.

Denmark's Red-Greens, considered by public opinion to be the far-most looney left there is, has weighed in on the arrest warrants for zionist war criminals. They are doing so by asking the regime to explain "future relations" with the illegal zionist entity.

Red-Green foreign policy spokesperson Trine Petrou Mach says:

The way Danish foreign policy has been conducted for the last 13 to 14 months has been based on the fact that there was no evidence of war crimes. This is not proof, but it is a sign that there is indeed a justified suspicion.

"No evidence" until now. "Not proof". A "justified suspicion". You've got to admire the courage, principles and clear moral compass of the western left.

• Source: TV 2 (state media)

In Finland news.

National news is running a story on the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3 stating that it has visited Russian ports several times. This is the story, full stop. This is framed as being very suspicious although nothing is actually being said. The headline literally is "Chinese ship has suddenly visited Russian ports several times". The newspiece has open commenting so the local conspiracy heads can rile themselves up well and good.

This is accompanied by another news piece with speculation on a Russian war ship being parked at the Denmark strait near the Chinese ship. This is full on conspiracy brain stuff, in our national news.

On Putin and the missile there are stories where history now starts from the missile. It's Russian aggression and just happened for no reason. Putins speech is called chilling and a threat to the West. An expert is called upon to explain how the next weeks will be dangerous, but we are told that there is one thing that can appease Russia. I did not look at what this one thing is. No mention of the USA or UK.

On Ukraine the story that most ukrainians would wish for the war to end is also up with an open commenting section. Hundreds of Finns have taken the time to comment on how we should fight to the last ukrainian.

There is also a piece about the missiles having no payload which seems to puzzle the local natohawks somehow.

There is also an interesting type of new anti-labor news story about a remote worker who works globally and thinks labor laws and such restrict this awesome new lifestyle.

Several other stories on the cable stuff and much warmongering, but nothing much worth going over.

I was checking out the US elections and the Electoral College, and I have a question. They have to vote for both the president and the vice-president. Technically speaking, could there be a possibility, probably almost impossible, that a president is from one party but the vice president is from another party, if the College votes that way? Imagine if Trump was elected with Tim Walz as his VP. that would probably be pretty funny