Western media again living years in the past. There was a time when this was indeed the most realistic scenario if Ukraine and its western handlers had agreed to come to the table and negotiate. Maybe Summer 2022 this would have been acceptable to Russia. Unfortunately, back then Washington and Kiev were still dreaming of total victory and regime change in Russia. Well now that time is long past and there are new realities on the ground that have to be acknowledged.
I was reading articles from supposed "realists" and even some comments from a lot of leftists who somehow less than a year ago still thought that the conflict could be resolved by accepting Russia's pre-SMO demands, of giving up Crimea, no NATO, autonomous Donbass and maybe referendums down the line. Completely ignoring the fact that the Donbass already had referendums and already joined Russia over a year prior. As did Zaporozhie and Kherson. These people need to stop living in the past.
The problem is that they live in an echo chamber and never listen to what the Russians are saying. Since the referendums were held Russia has said consistently and clearly that the return of all four Oblasts to Russia in their full administrative borders, not just the parts that the Russians currently control, is a minimum pre-condition for negotiations. The NYT and whoever told them to write this article still don't get this. They still labor under the delusion that they can freeze the conflict along the current contact line.
And as of last week i think even this offer that had been on the table for over a year has now been rescinded as a result of the Kiev junta's little PR stunt. The next offer that Russia makes will likely have significantly harsher terms now. Expect the next NYT article six months from now to be: "Ukraine may have to give up all four Russia annexed Oblasts in their entirety", but by that point the situation will look much worse for Ukraine and Russia's demands will have again changed to reflect the new reality on the ground.
The West needs to understand that any offer that Russia makes is for a limited time only. If you are losing a war and you refuse today's offer, the next one will only be worse for you. You can't just turn the clock back to when you were in a better position and ask for the offer that was made way back then. The more you keep fighting hoping for better terms the worse that it will be for you in the end. But frankly i don't think they are capable psychologically of accepting this. I think they prefer losing Ukraine entirely rather than negotiate with Russia.
