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What are the odds this stands up in court? It seems like an easy legal victory for TikTok.
On what basis? The legal power of the US government to break up or otherwise force divestment of corporate assets is the basis upon which antitrust law is built. The only way this law could be overturned is it's found unconstitutional, and if that happens, you can say goodbye to the FTC.
The question is indeed constitutionality. But I disagree with you about any major effect on the FTC. Details matter, and this looks to be a situation where the details don't look good for the government. A court could easily find that this was handled improperly, and leave the rest of the framework as it is.
Why would a court be able to "easily find this was handled improperly"?