this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2023
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Some food for thought from Mastodon:
https://blog.joinmastodon.org/2023/07/what-to-know-about-threads/
@panja
Meta is going to kill the Fediverse and it's all probably a part of Zuck's grand plan.
How would they kill it? I'm all for blocking them, but I'm not sure how could they kill Mastodon or other activitypub apps.
They'll kill it by having the largest userbase, and therefore the most and best content, and then finally defederating and forcing everyone to join Threads. At least that's what they'll most likely attempt to do. It remains to be seen whether they'll be successful. The EEE approach has been used before and is well documented. Read more on Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguish
Since when has Facebook had the best content? I mean I could see them getting a large user base and lots of content, but I have never looked at Facebook or Instagram and wished that content was on another platform. So I guess I'm not too worried.
More users means more content, especially for a Twitter-like service which is based on following individual people. And apparently they already have more sign-ups than Mastadon.
Twitter had more users than Mastodon. Probably still has, despite Musk's best efforts. Yet ... I'm on Mastodon, not Twitter. I get a lot more good quality content from Mastodon than I ever got from Twitter. Interesting. It's almost as "more content" doesn't mean "more good content".
Almost.
Same thing with Reddit. Literally every time I peeked in at Reddit it was a cesspool. There was loads of content, sure, but it was a slurry of shit every time I looked into it. Lemmy, despite being orders of magnitude smaller, gave me better content. That's why I'm on Lemmy and my Reddit account lapsed years ago. Again, it's almost as if "more content" doesn't mean "more quality content".
Almost.
4chan and 8chan have more users than Lemmy too. They probably have more good content as well, right, and aren't a septic tank of toxicity.
Hopefully that stays true. I've definitely been in the same boat, sort of reviewing the Reddit front page every now and then out of habit when I'm bored at work, but immediately getting bored after the first page or two and after the first couple comments. I only go there for the most niche subreddits (some video game communities) or when I'm researching an issue now.
This is a non sequiter argument. It does not necessarily follow that good content comes from a large userbase. In fact, both of those things are rarely true at the same time. points vaguely at social media
I'm not saying Meta isn't going to try to run the EEE playbook at some point. Its likely they will, but we are all already skeptical about it. More likely, the play now is to capitalize on the discontent and missteps over at Twitter, and capture the folks over there who are leaving¹. Mastodon and ActivityPub are a functional, free and open source implementation they can use to bootstrap a micro blogging and DM service that supports the familiar hashtag semantics. If they even decide to federate with us, it's probably just an afterthought. We're small, and already quite hostile.
Now... Is there value in having a gateway to that content? That's arguable. I find the kind of stuff posted on Insta to be vapid enough or sufficiently commercial that I feel no need to interact with it. I probably still wouldn't interact with it even if it happens to show up here. Same for the herpaderp-maga dingbats and their chicanery wandering into discussion threads. Down vote, block, move on. For certain, I would never get back into bed with Meta because-- c'mon-- they're Meta, and they're a known quantity. Same as if Google, Amazon, Apple, Reddit (and other failed social media giants) signed on. If their content is available here and of high enough quality to interact with then I'll interact with it from here or I won't interface at all. But no, I won't go into your walled garden to play with your toys. "My terms take em or leave em," and I think a lot of us feel the same way, deep down.
I do, however, think corporate engagement here IS valuable. In the same way that social media teams at your favorite retail brands engage on the Big Socials, I would also welcome their engagement here as well because its another avenue to interact with the brand as a potential, current or disgruntled customer. There's no reason the media teams at Nabisco or Target couldn't set up their own instance and interact with users on other instances. If they play along with us in flgood faith, it works. If they start being evil corporations they get defedersted and lose engagement.
ActivityPub isn't going anywhere. It's a standard and a suite of software implementations that nobody can take away. The early adopters are here the community is vibrant llterally in spite of Big Social and now the entrepreneurs are following.
Anyway, I think you're right to be wary of this move, and about the prospects of the EEE playbook being deployed here as well. I also think we can afford to be a little more sanguine about it for the moment because Meta's enemy is making a mistake, and we happen to be the arms dealer this week.
Make popcorn and watch the theater. I just read Twitter is suing Meta already, so you know this is gonna be fun!
--
¹ Conspiracy theory (I just can't help myself!): On today's episode of Billionare Behaving Badly, Zuck underwrites a portion of Musk's Twitterbuyout. Musk trashes the brand and liquidates the stock. Tesla buys the infrastructure and Meta buys the user base and their analytics
I was coming at it from the perspective of an ex-Reddit user. The main appeal of that site to me was (is?) the size of the userbase and the fact it meant you had access to literally any type of person at your fingertips. Every niche interest was represented, there were people of all ages and walks of life and you could find help or others in the same boat no matter what tech issue you faced or rare ailment you contracted. This type of "content" if you can call it that is only available once the population reaches a certain critical mass. Smaller communities are of course more conducive to civil discussion, high-effort posting and actual conversations, but looking at the popularity of that social media you're gesturing towards I'm not sure that's what the majority of people are even after.
It's not that I want to attract Facebook users to Lemmy, it's more that Threads as an alternative could well siphon other users who might have otherwise come over here, ending up preventing this site from reaching critical mass. Then again, maybe this particular fear is overexaggerated right now since - as you say - Threads is competing with Twitter and not Reddit/Lemmy.
I think the problem is twofold here really. First is the All feed, which by function of how the engagement algorithm works would instantly get flooded with content from Threads if they end up federated, drowning out the content from here. It would not be a matter of deciding not to engage with the post from Threads and keeping scrolling. You wouldn't browse Lemmy anymore, it would just be Threads and Meta all the way down.
Second is the comment sections to any discussion even on communities here would likely get flooded with Facebook comments. By sheer volume of users they have already too many of them would find their way here. And it is again not exactly the type of - let's call it "discourse" - I'm chomping at the bit to partake in.
I think you're absolutely right and I think if Zuckerberg even knows what "Lemmy" is then it's because somebody mentioned it in passing when briefing him about ActivityPub. It's clear trying to usurp Twitter has been planned for a long time and you can understand why. If Lemmy was involved in the thought process at all, it would only be as inspiration for how Threads could in the future be connected to yet another new platform which in that case would outcompete Reddit, which is a site I'm sure Zuckerberg would very much like to usurp as well.
But social media teams at your favorite brands don't connect on social media in order to contact disgruntled customers or discuss consumer concerns, they do it because it's great, cheap advertising. RyanAir doesn't use twitter to ask customers if the uncomfortable seats injured their backs, they make funny tweets because they believe it will sell more cheap plane tickets.
Hell, even if the social media admin appears to be discussing actual issues with consumers I doubt those issues would go anywhere afterwards. The big brands aren't interested in consumer concerns but they probably wouldn't mind looking like they are since that would make people more sympathetic towards them and more likely to chose their product.
Can we arrange for a cage to be built in the courtroom and schedule it so Zuck and Elon give their testimonies in between the rounds of beating the shit out of each other?
Well stated! I agree wirh you on most of it The only point I want to make is:
The niche communities themselves tended to be small and focused, which is what I say improved the quality of the content. Contrast with the large, default sub's when I think we both agree failed to add value. I say that communities happened to accrete there was because it was low effort and low friction. Now, not so much. It was a naked grab for cash by usurping the uncompensated efforts of a few dedicated people. The true believers moved on.
As a market place of ideas, reddit was a good mega mall. The anchors sucked but the boutiques were cool. Now it's just a great big building full of disregarded storefronts after the holiday sales have ended.
I understand, but if they defederate the Fediverse will be what used to be, right? I'm pretty happy with how are Mastodon and Lemmy so far. I joined both during the Blackout and I don't mind less content but higher quality.
They don't even have discussion forums like Lemmy. They might have the most twitter like crap but they won't have the best content.
They could offer the slickest interface and keep people locked to their friends. That interface can use protocols that make it difficult/impossible for non-Threads instances to play ball (ooh this cool new feature is only available through the Threads app; Oh, my basement.world.ml.xyz can't read that content). There are many ways to EEE, and I'm sure we haven't even thought of some ways Threads could use.
I think defederation is our only option to protect what we have.
Yes, I totally agree with you.
My fear is that some people is advocating for defederating the instances that doesn't defederate Meta. In my opinion that would be awful for the health of the Fediverse, as it'll be even more scattered.
I'm not sure how you know that?
They're not going to kill it because we're not going to let them... what's with the nihilism? If you're gonna resign that easily just go ahead and download tiktok and instagram and give away all your data today.
One of the worst parts from the "article" which is wildly misdirecting:
This is most probably decidedly false. Meta has always and will probably continue to collects whatever data they can, they build databases of relations, and collect not only on their users, but also the people their users have contact with.
If you write a message to a Threads user, you can be pretty sure as much as possible from that message is collected. Not just the message, but also any metadata that can be used to identify you and any context you are in.
Meta gets all the data as well, even if all people defederate.
ActivityPub has it in the name. All your activities in the fediverse are public.
The article talks about private data saved on your phone like health data, contacts etc. Threads takes those, Mastodon app does not.
Yes you are right, it was a brainfart on my part.
Eugen's naïveté is going to destroy this whole platform.
Yeah, I'd like to see an actual explanation of why the Fediverse is insulated from EEE aside from 'Mastodon brand recognition'.
I think by brand recognition they don't necessary mean "mastodon is a known brand so it'll be fine", rather that mastodon is a big enough brand for their voice to be heard... I imagine that it'll end up being like mozilla and google with the w3c, where even if one is far more open and collects less data than the other while also having fewer users, they still agree to and collaborate to create the same standards, and users can disable these
In the grand scheme, though, no one uses either mastodon or lemmy. I'm sure, to the devs and people who joined before 2021, that a couple million users seems like an enormous victory (and it is), but relative to a half billion twitters, the 1.5 billion instagrammers, or even the 5+M that signed up for Threads on the first day, it's nothing.
Those Threads users aren't part of Lemmy or Mastodon, they're part of Threads. They don't have to know what Lemmy or Mastodon are, even as they benefit from content created there. Once Threads is big enough, they either DOS non-corporate instances with mountains of data, disable those instances with protocol-breaking customizations, or just ignore them because all the biggest communities and content are hosted at Threads.
When mozilla & google started working together, Firefox was the majority browser and chrome a ridiculous upstart trying to squeeze into a domain dominated by IE and FF. The fediverse does not have mozilla's power in that analogy. I mean, fediverse may survive after that, but the commercial players will absolutely siphon off anyone who cares more about the user experience and content than about privacy on a public forum, which probably means the user base of July 2022, not July 2023.
Half a billion Twitter users? At its peak Twitter had 300 million monthly users. Or are you talking total number of Twitter accounts, even the ones that have been lying dormant since 2016?
Twitter has always been an also-ran as a social media site. Despite being a "major" and "international" site, its peak user count was smaller than a lot of strictly-regional social media sites. Sina Weibo, for example, was until recently regarded as a failure because it had "only" 600 million active users, and that's a single-nation site for all practical purposes, against Twitter's "international" membership. (With a major cash and marketing push from new owners Ali, Weibo has grown quite a bit since those failure days, mind. It still has only about 600 million active users, but it's become quite an influential social hub at the expense of Tencent's QZone.)
Yes, isolate me from those scary non-Threads instances daddy