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I unfortunately feel like it probably will end well for them, there really isn't a mainstream alternative for reddit. Lemmy isn't that easy to get into as an average user and the information on the reddit that have amassed over the years is just insane, I assume a lot of people are going to keep using reddit as if nothing has happened.
I don’t know why people are saying Lemmy is difficult. I’m as dumb as a box of hammers and all I did was Google “Lemmy World”, clicked the top link, created an account, subbed to about 80 subs, and started posting.
I have no idea what instances are or the Fediverse. I’m typing in subs and clicking submit.
I just kept crawling and it kept working.
I think the nerds (and I’m not using that as an insult) have kind of shot everyone in the foot by over-explaining the fediverse. I’ve yet to see a truly simple, concise, short explanation and how all this works is just kind of… a lot. It’s really neat, and I also get wordy when I’m excited about something so I totally get it (I mean, look at this comment. I get it lol). But when it takes more than a paragraph or two to explain what something is without even getting into how to navigate once you’re in, it’s intimidating for a lot of people. I had to watch YouTube videos to try to figure mastodon out, and still didn’t get my questions answered. It’s easier to find content I’m interested in on Lemmy and kbin, but after all the articles and chatter I’ve seen, I honestly expected it to be a lot more difficult. I was like, it’s social media. How hard can it be? And then I saw all the hype, I held off for a while before joining. The focus is about how instances work and whatnot, which IS really interesting and wonderful and neat, but the focus needs to shift a liiiittle bit toward telling people how to use the sites once they’re there, IMO.
Its almost like surfing, but on some sort of interconnected net
Kind of like a web? One that's so large it covers the world?
A federation superhighway, if you will
Similar experience, I saw people say beehaw lemmy and kbin, went to kbin because I found its name more aesthetically pleasing, made an account and dived in.
If the 3rd party apps can re-architect around Lemmy, I think a lot more people would ditch Reddit on principle. As it stands, ActivityPub is a bit of a mindfuck to outsiders so even principled Reddit users are likely going to stick around. Until there’s a better mousetrap, so to speak.
An approach 3rd party apps can take could be just hiding the "different instances" aspect of the lemmy and just registering users to a certain preselected instance such as lemmy.world or lemmy.ml I don't know how legal or viable it is but I don't think it would cause much difference for most of the users. Though I feel like hiding a crucial aspect would be a kind of shame.
They could provide the choice. But I don't think he signup is the big problem. Things like duplicate communities are going to be bigger headaches I fear. Though I just joined today so might not be on the right level yet ;)
Reddit did not have that to start with. The people who used it brought it to read it. Many of the same people read it is currently running off. A lot of the information will remain there. But it will also spread elsewhere. Unlike everywhere else though. Reddit is likely to see a lot less updates.
lemmy doesn't really have that barrier anymore. when i joined i had to figure it out, now there are guidelines on what a fediverse is and how to use lemmy.
Even if it has a small barrier to entry, thats not a horrible thing. Acts as a decent filter id say.
As far as I'm concerned, the modest barrier to entry for Lemmy is a good thing. The bigger Reddit got, the more it declined in quality. It's still possible to be reasonable on Lemmy so far.