Credits to basil-squared from r/AyyMD
this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2025
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Kinda seems like a huge mistake to devaluate nvidia because of deepseek. Deepseek has proven that LLMs can be run much more cheaply than previously thought, the nvidia cards can now do much more than previously thought possible. What am I missing?
Nvidia's valuation was based on the premise that OpenAI was going to be spending seven trillion dollars on infrastructure, most of which would go to Nvidia, because it was impossible to make the ultimate mediocrity machine without that level of investment.
Furthermore, the DeepSeek team claims they did this on relatively old GPUs, the kind that there are already tens of thousands of shipping containers worth of in crypto and llm farms today, that everybody was expecting to need to turn over every 18 months.
The part you're missing is the complete lack of rationality in the near term stock market.
DeepSeek was built using older chips, but NVDA was priced on the premise that newer chips were almost a requirement for anyone seriously investing in machine learning.
Another factor was the open-sourcing of DeepSeek, which makes larger hardware investments harder to justify. Nvidia will continue selling, this is just a momentary stock price correction.
The thing is Nvidia hardware is in such high demand it won't really matter. There is way more demand than there is manufacturing capacity.
To add, there's movement in the government to subsidize AI with giant GPU farms (with their own power source, et.). Of course, I am pretty sure they'll go with it anyway despite it being overkill.
The thing is Nvidia hardware is in such high demand it won't really matter. There is way more demand than there is manufacturing capacity.