this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2024
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The US already crosses 3 of these (democracy & human rights, China's system, development without infringement), 2 of them (democracy and human rights, development without infringement) very flagrantly with their constant attacks and sanctions around Xinjiang and in general against China and their restrictions on high technology such as chips including China selling gear such as Huawei products. And of course they're constantly trying to overthrow and change China's system with color revolutions, sponsoring terrorism and separatism, fostering liberalism, pushing propaganda, but it's a lower key thing.
They will cross the fourth red line (Taiwan) within 3-4 years I can be nearly certain.
I think everybody realizes where things are going, and China is trying to drag this out as long as possible to give them more time to prepare for the conflict. China is rapidly building up its military strength while cutting its economic dependence on the west. I expect that 3-4 years will make a very big difference in both respects.
Its not just China that needs to prepare. China wants to make very clear to the rest of the global south that the US is the one pushing for this so that when it happens and China stops holding back and gives the US the bloody nose it deserves most nations will not villify China for defending itself. The US likewise wants to paint China as the aggressors and act like a "good guy".
Absolutely, the narrative is important here as well. When push comes to shove and countries have to choose a side, it will be important for China to be seen as the sensible actor in the conflict. I'd argue that the west has already largely destroyed its credibility with the proxy war in Ukraine and support for genocide in Gaza. Majority of the countries outside the west are now starting to visibly shift towards BRICS, and I expect this will be a self reinforcing trend.
And should the US try something - like a naval blockade of China as I don’t think the US will attempt to ignite a direct, “hot”war - those relationships with the global south will matter a great deal. Those land connections based in the BRI will serve as lifeline for China to access the rest of Asia and point beyond in that scenario.