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this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2024
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I really don't think the entire West has to worry about being dragged further into the conflict at this point.
Russia is throwing bodies at the war, and it has shown that it lacks modern equipment and modern strategy. The failed tests of the ICBM and other nuclear delivery vehicles show they have no teeth other than their psychological and social campaigns which are now easy to recognize.
That latest failed test was a new system, not yet implemented in Russia's security structure. Their nuclear capability is for all intents and purposes still a threat.
Then how many red lines will be crossed before they use them? I personally think Russia is no longer a player in MAD.
Obviously we don't want to prove that, it doesn't benefit anyone. But given that Ukraine is now fortified within Russian territory, and the main opposition to ever invading Russia was the threat of nuclear retaliation, I really doubt it. Especially considering how crazy the Kremlin is.
It's kind of really reassuring to think about. China being the sole MAD player could end the anxiety of nuclear extinction for a long, long time. The West has no intentions of using them again, and I have no doubt China is not interested in it either. They seem to be pretty good about the whole self-preservation thing, at least in theory if not always in practice.
Proving Russia isn't a player in MAD would greatly benefit NATO's Eurasian strategy. But we need to act as if they still are because it's simply unknown what the extent of their nuclear capabilities are.
I think there is good rationale on Putin's side for not using nukes in the Ukrainian war, as there is no way to use them without downstream effects on neighboring countries. Any use of nukes in Ukraine would provoke a decisive response from NATO. That's why NATO has been able to cross every one of Russia's red lines so far: Russia only stands to lose if they follow through.
Since the western allies just don't want some weapons not used for strikes in russia, I suspect they secretly don't want russia to get their hands on their tech or otherwise develop better countermeasures.
I didn't think a lot of the U.S. weapons were modern to our arsenal. I know the Brits and Danish had, so I understand that.
But any strikes within Ukraine against Russian forces could place those platforms in such a position, and we know from history that Russia has a way to pull tech recovered from the battlefield. I doubt that's the main reason.
Stupid and unlikely thought I had: The West don't want Russia to know just how weak it really is against the West so that Russia doesn't kick itself into high gear trying to truly modernize its forces by eliminating the grift and corruption that plagues its MIC. A Russia plagued by a corrupt military is a Russia that is essentially toothless in an armed conflict.
Of course, this doesn't excuse not allowing deep Russian strikes with already provided equipment.