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Israel Launches Massive Attack on Lebanon, Heightening Fears of All-Out War
(www.commondreams.org)
this post was submitted on 25 Aug 2024
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The missile attack from Iran back in April de-escalated though. Not saying that will happen again this time, but it's definitely imaginable Iran actually will let it go.
Especially considering the last missile attack proved to be ineffective. Missiles aren't free, it takes time and money to make more. Once those missiles are fired they don't have more for a while to fire back if and when Israel retaliates.
The last time Israel hit a field near to a strategic Iranian missile site as retaliation. So they "missed" and both sides de-escalated. It's widely assumed that Israel didn't actually miss, the missile hit exactly where intended as a warning. While Iranian missiles weren't able to significantly penetrate Israeli missile defenses, Israel's missiles can penetrate Iranian defenses even in areas of strategic importance. Next missile attack from Iran will result in that nuclear research site (and possibly other sites of strategic value) likely being destroyed.
So there will be a significant cost for Iran to fire missiles at Israel. They still might do it, hoping whatever improvements they may have made to their air defenses will work this time around. But it's a big gamble for Iran to directly fire missiles at Israel again rather than have their Hezbollah proxies do it.
So further activity will likely come from Hezbollah, but it's a similar situation for them as Iran. Missiles fired and shot down by Israeli air defenses is a net loss to them. Having the threat of being able to fire a lot of missiles goes away once those missiles are fired.
Have to wait and see how this plays out.