this post was submitted on 13 Jul 2024
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I would have expected the US to be the first party to pretend the One China Policy doesn't exist. Considering how subtle Chinese politics tend to be, and that Lai himself seems to be escalating this message, I'm guessing this will be taken as a bigger provocation and insult than it might appear. The PRC might just let Lai crash Taiwan's economy until the DPP gives in to reality, if it weren't for the US looming overhead, ready to make Taiwan another unsinkable aircraft carrier in a proxy war.
It definitely seems that squeezing Taiwan economically is the plan. I do think there are red lines that would force China to react though. For example, if DPP tries to outright declare independence or if US tries to put missiles there that can hit mainland.
Do we have a clear idea what the current buildup on the kinmen is?
My understanding is that there's nothing really major so far, but it's hard to say since US isn't being very open about it.
I've only heard "US special forces" are there. Not sure how many, but I doubt the didn't bring any toys.
I would guess China has a pretty good idea of what US brings there given that it's a national security issue.