saw this posted by @sailor_sega_saturn at https://awful.systems/comment/3871697
op has a simple question:
Why are trans women so intellectually successful? They seem to be overrepresented 5-100x in eg cybersecurity twitter, mathy AI alignment, non-scam crypto twitter, math PhD programs, etc.
and a skull shaped answer:
My theory is that too much testosterone makes you dumber, particularly during adolescence. You need a little for your cells & organs to work, but past a certain point it does more harm than good (for intelligence specifically — motivation & happiness etc aside). Apparently this is not a new theory and people have posited a U-shaped curve for how testosterone affects IQ. The key (sad) claim is that the vast majority of men are on the too-much-T side of the curve. Maybe trans women get the best of both worlds intellectually — a male skull with female chemistry.
our researcher sets about fending off possible objections:
Why didn't evolution give females big heads if it would make them all geniuses? Another anecdote. My sister has a big head. She was valedictorian in high school I think. She hit her head one day in middle school during gym class by running into a wall. She also fell off a bike and hit her head in high school. I have never hit my head and I think the main reason is that my arms are strong enough to catch myself. So maybe the big headed women would-be-ancestors fell and hit their heads.
cites chatgpt for this:
Do trans men get the worst of both worlds intellectually — female skulls and male chemistry? Yes.
demonstrates the exceptional explanatory power of his hypothesis:
Why are really good tech founders so rare? You have to have very high power-seeking/initiative (T) and very high IQ. This is an incredibly rare combination because the testosterone murders your IQ. You have to be a genius before puberty hits. Helps if your brain/head is giant. Look at eg Elon Musk & Jeff Bezos.
describes the potential impact of his research:
I suspect that some simple electrical stimulation in the womb could make infant females' skulls bigger and result in lots of genius women. If they don't fall off their bikes and hit their heads.
all time great footnotes:
Thought of some more potential evidence. The smartest cis women I've known almost all had lack of butt (women's most visible muscle -- so low testosterone?)
Later that day: i asked my sister. She said all her smart friends (men and women) lack butts too! She and I both have the butt, so we are speaking against our own kind here.
a commenter has an epistemically rigorous counterpoint:
I don't understand why you need to invoke testosterone. Transgender brain is special, for example, transgender women have immunity to visual illusions.
another commenter objects to that, based on a deep dive into the literature:
Can you source this claim? I've never heard it and GPT-4 says it has no scientific basis.
"well admittedly I made it up, but it seems plausible"
Whoops, it's really looks like I imagined this claim to be backed more than by one SSC post. In my defense I say that this poll covered really existing thing like abnormal illusions processing in schizophrenics (see "Systematic review of visual illusions schizophrenia" Costa et al., 2023) and I think it's overall plausible.
So the rationalists* got this weird idea that good thinkers can deduce everything from first principles. Not just from experiments or literature review or looking at evidence, but by thinking real hard and LARPing at bayesian statistics.
Thought leader Yudkowsky once wrote that a super-intelligence** could deduce general relativity from three photos of a falling apple. They call themselves the cult of Bayes. There's lots of talk about epistimology, and updating priors after ~~seeing evidence~~ reading eachother's blog posts.
In short: you are looking into the abyss. Do take care.
* Self-named
** A god AI; they want to invent a nice one and avoid an evil one.
It turns out if you reframe "embracing cognitive bias" as "bayesian inference," you can write whole-ass pseudo-academic essays about whatever you want to be true and somehow have people take you seriously.
"embracing cognitive bias" in the "hell yeah I'm down for quadrupling stakes! BRING OUT THE ADDERALL*" sense
(* otherwhere it'd be blackjack, hookers, and blow. but these nerds would get thrown out of such smokey rooms fairly immediately - if they ever even got in)