Respectfully, this sounds like opinion and doubt rather than a credibly timeline. Other than rattling off industry terms the only support you've given your argument is "I don't see AGI happening". You've collected an impressive shopping basket of buzz words but done little to dissuade me or the engineers developing this technology that it won't be ready within a lifetime. Stay tuned.
Oh, and "its own thinking" not "it's own thinking". His, hers, its.
"pay much attention" not "play". I'd be more careful with that keyboard if I were you. Wouldn't want to lose any credibility.