No party has come back from so far back in the polls to win an election at this stage. Also the tories are hopelessly divided - everything they feel like they're "getting somewhere" their divisions come to the for again.
On top of all that, the mortgage timebomb alongside the inflation problems are looking like they're lasting longer than expected/hoped. I'd expect much of next year to be dominated with stories about families struggling to cope with the high mortgage rates, being forced to sell their homes and the property market being a mess. It's not a good situation to be in but I can't see how the Tories can see that out.
I think they're right - this is a ticking time bomb and even if the mortgage market comes under control in the next few months, rate are going to be high all the way through to the next election in Autumn/Winter 2024.
An economy under pressure, with people having to sell their homes in a depressed property market or worse families having their homes repossessed - I can't see the tories coming back form this.