BananaTrifleViolin

joined 1 year ago
[–] BananaTrifleViolin 5 points 1 year ago (4 children)

I think they're right - this is a ticking time bomb and even if the mortgage market comes under control in the next few months, rate are going to be high all the way through to the next election in Autumn/Winter 2024.

An economy under pressure, with people having to sell their homes in a depressed property market or worse families having their homes repossessed - I can't see the tories coming back form this.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No party has come back from so far back in the polls to win an election at this stage. Also the tories are hopelessly divided - everything they feel like they're "getting somewhere" their divisions come to the for again.

On top of all that, the mortgage timebomb alongside the inflation problems are looking like they're lasting longer than expected/hoped. I'd expect much of next year to be dominated with stories about families struggling to cope with the high mortgage rates, being forced to sell their homes and the property market being a mess. It's not a good situation to be in but I can't see how the Tories can see that out.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 3 points 1 year ago

This drama is going to play out all the way up to the election. At the moment it looks like he star is on the wane but it really depends on how much support he really has amongst the Tory members.

The party after the next election is going to be a mess. They'll either elect someone to the right of the party and fester in irrelevence for years or possibly back to Boris for more drama. Could he even stand as an independent if the leadership try and keep him out of a seat?

This drama never seems to end.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 2 points 1 year ago

It's global warming - it's decided to take the weekends off so it can also indulge in avocado toast.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

The main driver is inflation - it's higher than expected, and not falling as fast as expected. So bond yields have gone up as the market expects Interest Rates to go up further to bring down inflation.

The problem for the mortgage lenders is that they themselves borrow money off the market - if they offer a product at 5.5% but their own borrowing rate goes up, they're at risk of losing money if people fix at the low rate. These changes are happening fast at the moment causing the mortgage lenders to be inundated with demand and then discovering their product is no longer even viable.

This will calm down once Inflation starts falling in line with predictions (rather than defying predictions); bond markets will become less volatile and more predictable so mortgage lenders will be able to offer deals for longer without worrying their costs will change by the next day.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 5 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Are we a nation of cumudgeons?

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)

This makes sense. But the biggest issue is that the word "transphobia" means different things to different people, which then makes it a nightmare for anyone trying to police a space with free speech.

There is a similar problem with Homophobia but less marked and controversial perhaps? I'm a gay guy. If someone says "I hate gay people" thats obviously homophobia. But if someone says "I don't think gay people should marry, because marriage is a religious thing" is that homophobia? I don't agree with it but it's an opinion. Someone can be hateful and hold that opinion, but that opinion itself doesn't mean the person is hateful - at least to me. But another gay person may say "no that is hateful in itself". Where do you draw the line?

Also to my understanding the fediverse doesn't have any written rules on what is allowed. Each server sets their rules, and there has been consensus around certain rules (such as those you mention). The complexity comes in enforcing the intepretation of rules by one server on another, and the risk is fragmentation with some places defederated between others and people getting confused what is or isn't interconnected. A may defederate from B, but both may stay federated with C. The content on A and B is visible from C but users interacting with content from C on A and B won't see each other in C's communities or interect.

I have no answers for this. It's just going to be a big challenge that is inherent to this model. But it is still way better than what exists in old social media.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 5 points 1 year ago

Yeah it is very annoying. It may get restored in the future but at the moment it's just another failed infrastructure project due to a lack of political will and leadership.

As a northerner I'm angry that "Northern Powerhouse Rail" still hasn't gotten anyway. The economic benefits of east/west connections in the north would benefit the whole country.

[–] BananaTrifleViolin 1 points 1 year ago (2 children)

Yeah, that is similar to how the landline telephone network runs - OpenReach owns and maintains the network and has to provide access to everyone else.

A single high quality mobile network would make sense, and reduce duplication. But the Government went the monopolies route of selling frequencies to telecoms providers to build out their own networks to encourage competition. It works to a point but is wasteful.

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