I would stick with 4TB in your case.
this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2023
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It’s not just about how much storage you’re currently using, but also the rate that it’s increasing. I would look at the past few years and then come up with a “gigabytes per year” number for yourself, and then multiply that by 2 to account for growing resolutions.
Also: I hope that you’re keeping backups. Storing all of your data on your MacBook is risky because, if there’s an unrelated problem with your MacBook, you can’t exactly pull out the drive to get your data.