Asklemmy

I think it has already started. It just hasn't consolidated yet.

No

You never really know, it's plausible. But I doubt it. It doesn't seem any more likely now than it did in 2016.

Ceasefire in Gaza for a minimum of 6 weeks (if I understood the news correctly) is huge. That conflict might be close to over if we're lucky.

So, WW3 won't happen until the oligarchy says it's time. Not sure why now would be the time, but I suppose it could be. There's like a billion people in the world making a dollar a day, a few billion people only making a few dollars a day... That's a few billion dollars per day the oligarchy almost certainly thinks belongs in their pocket instead. So I could see them continuing to squeeze the world for every last drop of wealth, which I think will cause unrest in a lot of places. Add climate change to that and I think things just get bad everywhere for most people. Obviously the oligarchy will just go to their islands, yachts, bunkers until a few billion are dead and they can pop back out with their private armies ready to "save" the world.

A lot of people think they need us to buy their trinkets, but the entire consumer middle class is only like 100 years old, and I think was only designed to keep us distracted while they plundered the world. Now that a small handful of people own everything, and soon enough robots and AI will replace most human labor, it's mission accomplished and we can go back to feudalism where they are gods and everyone else is slaves.

You're not overexagerating, the property crisis in the imperial core is becoming so severe that there are only 2 solutions, either the people rebel against its ruling class or they side with them and engage in yet another settler project. In my honest opinion, the latter seems like the most probably outcome, its already very advanced in Palestine and its starting in Syria.

No

You are probably overexaggerating.
There are increased conflicts over the world but no signs of a world war.

First there are no willing candidates for it. Not even Russia which is engaged in a war is willing to make the push to engage NATO, which is the closest to a world war we would get.
Neither is Iran willing to go into war which was very obvious after their actions when Israel made ample opportunities for them to escalate conflict.
And for China.. well war is bad for business, and China really likes doing business.

However the US with Trump at the helm. 🤷 Who the fuck knows. Maybe not world war but I am adding military occupation of Panama and Greenland to my bingo just in case.

I highly doubt that WWIII will happen (within the next few years), however I forsee the next several years to not be peacful. There will be several (regional/civil) despites that will most likley occur and the chances of any of them escalating is highly unlikley. Here are the conflicts I forsee:

• Continued Syrian Civil War: wont be pretty but escalation is unlikely
• Palestinian occupation: Will absolutely continue to be horrific but none of the neighboring Arab counties care enough to escalate (or risk US aid)
• Russia/Ukraine war: Russia will get some territory and thats about it, probrally just the Russian majority areas. After that the EU will intimidate Russia to back off.
• India/China border dispute: They'll make a lot of noise, actural fighting is unlikely
• US/Canada/Mexico/Greenland conflict: Who knows tbh, most likley Trump is running off his mouth as always
• China/Taiwan: I severly doubt it, in addition the US is moving microchip manufacturing to the US so strategic value may loosen

Worst case scenario here is a full blown war between the EU and Russia, the US likley wont get involved (Trump doesnt care about Europe) and neither will China (both counties might send aid respectively). It would probrally end with Russia surrendering followed by them loosing no land and maybe a regime change plus some political reforms.

I don’t expect it, but I don’t rule it out either.

Just a warning for everyone who isn’t worried: you expect that the leaders of the world act logically and like adults. That might be a mistake.

It’ll take longer than 2 years. It’ll take a decade.

I am personally looking for a few things that will concern me about escalation:

• Japan and Finland making active land claims to Russia (actively reoccupying disputed land with troops)

• Europe putting peace keepers in Western Ukraine (which will create a casus belli for war with Russia), specifically France and the UK. I mean, Poland as well, but if Poland says they are putting peacekeeping troops in Ukraine, Russia should either back off or assume war.

• South Korean troops in Ukraine. (Ridiculous given their current chaos, but stranger things have happened in the last year).

Other than that, the russian frog has been very well boiled for 3 years. Even China has probably gone back to the drawing board on a taiwan invasion, and added a delay until 10 millions drones are available.

I do have concerns trump will pull the us back in europe, making the second item above possible if not likely. The first trump presidency shook us primacy in europe, and the second may see it start to unravel. If europe has to take russia alone, the us should consider china a personal problem from now on (as well as any other concerns not near europe), as no one will see value in going to war with a fair-weather ally.

No I really don't I see water wars and cold war style espionage but no WW2 style conflict. But I also think we will have Societal collapse by 2030 due to climate change and being unable to grow food. Honestly after Cheeto got reelected I have just gone numb to all the of it. I am savoring each day.

I hug my love ones just a little longer than I used to. I write a log of each day to I remember it a little better. I have made a bucket list and I'm trying to check off as much as possible. But even with all that I sometimes catch myself mourning the earth. Also it's good to video your love ones it's awkward but it will be nice to hear their voice when you can't anymore.

Nah we’re speedrunning the 20s currently, so it’ll probably be another ten, fifteen years or so.

We already are, just in a smaller scale than ww1 and 2

My vibes based analysis says atleast in the next ten years

Current circumstances do seem worrisome. But, we've been threatened with that for all my life, and even decades before I was born. So who knows. MAD is a certain thing and I don't think entire countries are unstable enough to let that happen. I'm not really sure what Putin is getting at threatening all of Europe. The situation with China and Taiwan doesn't look good, with the US pledge of taking Taiwan's side for independence.

No but there will be wars.

I would say world war is still years away, but if SK in your name means slovakia then comfort yourself that you might find yourself in the early BRICS block vs US empire wars, so hopefully it'll be over without too much war in your country soon.