Rugby Union

Genuinely rooting for the Scots on this one.

Ireland are on the downswing, SA are the top tier thread, no Pacific island nation can be truly written off, and Romania are good but not world tier good just now.

I reckon if Scotland get out of this group, they'll be well placed for a top 4 finish.

Never a good thing to have 3 tier 1 nation's in the same group, but certainly makes this one, very interesting, Scotland are playing really well, so, fingers crossed

I'm all for the S.A. repeat personally. I do want a Scotland upset very badly.

For Scotland to make it through they'll need to play their top team in 3/4 games, and the Tongan game could be pretty bruising. Conversely I think South Africa can grind out an ugly win against Tonga without too much stress and the potentially physical nature of the game wouldn't concern them too much.

Ireland will want to use their top team against South Africa & Scotland; and I think the performances from the Maori All Blacks, and NZ A against 2nd string teams suggests there's at least a bit of a step down from their best team to the next. I think they'll still comfortably beat Tonga but it could take a similar physical toll as Scotland may take against Tonga.

So I reckon Scotland's chances come down to the sequencing of the matches. Ireland faces Romania, South Africa, Tonga then the Scotland game. Scotland has South Africa, Tonga, Romania then Ireland. Assuming Scotland don't get the job done against SA, and then Ireland lose to SA that last game of the pool is going to be huge and I reckon Scotland has the more favourable run in.

I think SA finishes first then Ireland in second. I do think that if Ireland and SA aren't playing there best they could be susceptible to a challenge from Scotland who have been playing very good.