this post was submitted on 04 Sep 2024

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391

Harris leads Trump in polls, but remains an underdog due to the Electoral College (www.msnbc.com)

submitted 2 months ago by floofloof@lemmy.ca to c/politics@lemmy.world

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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 112 points 2 months ago (5 children)

As usual, national polls mean nothing without national elections, but lets see where we're at...

Arizona - Trump +1, +3, +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada - Toss Up - Harris +1, Trump +1, Ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico - Harris +7, +8, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia - Toss Up Harris +1, +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina - Toss Up Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania - Toss Up Harris +1, Trump +1/+2, ties
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan - Harris +3, +5, Trump +1, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin - Harris +4, +6, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Minnesota - Harris +5, +7, +11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/

Arizona moves out of toss-up territory for the first time in a long time, moving to Trump.

Michigan is still with Harris, but slipping. Next round of polling could flip to Trump.

Let's look at the map:

So, of the "Undecideds", PA by itself puts Harris at 270. She could lose NV, NC, GA, AZ and still win with PA.

PA is NOT enough to win for Trump. That only puts him at 249. So he needs PA + 21 more. GA and NC are both 16, Nevada is 6.

So PA + any 2 other states, GA+NC, GA+NV, NC+NV.

If Trump takes PA and GA, and Harris gets NC + NV, she wins with 273. Same with GA + NC. 283 if she loses NV and takes GA+NC.

Much harder road for Trump to win here, but both of them absolutely must have PA.

[–] ReallyActuallyFrankenstein@lemmynsfw.com 51 points 2 months ago

God, I hate that we have to do this math to account for arbitrary electoral college nonsense at all, but you are doing a great job of making it as painless as possible.

[–] Coelacanth@feddit.nu 38 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I can't believe it's this close and I hate that Harris is starting to slip in some states. My heart can't handle another Trump presidency.

[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 6 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Then make plans to move out of the country. A close 2024 win for liberalism without solid leads in Congress means nothing but another nailbiter in 2028.

[–] Bogan@lemmy.world 11 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Moving out of the country is impossible for 99% of the people who would want to.

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[–] RampantParanoia2365@lemmy.world 17 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Holy Kornacki, thank you for putting that together.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago

I don't even have a big board!

[–] Burn_The_Right@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago

jordanlund is a Lemminal treasure.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

I'm starting to question 538s predictions not because there is any problem with the models, but because there is a filter on what polls they choose to include. I don't want to call it bias, it's just a blind spot that their model isn't getting all the input for.

Of course it's not like anyone else is doing a better job either.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Polling is inherently problematic every time you see they polled "likely voters" as opposed to "registered voters".

If they're self selecting who they consider to be "likely", it's going to have a skewed result.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Likely voters are those that have voted before, that's what makes them likely to vote again. For the most part they're the more accurate people to be polling.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago (1 children)

And discounts first time voters.

Some even only count people who voted in the last 2 elections.

[–] Skyrmir@lemmy.world 6 points 2 months ago

Because new voters are a rounding error smaller than the error bars of the sample size.

Polling is pretty much like the unemployment rate. Any individual reading is meaningless, it's a multitude of readings over time that give any useful information.

[–] morphballganon@lemmynsfw.com 60 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Sounds familiar

[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 7 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Which is good. It will prevent complacency, by either the Harris campaign or her supporters.

She really is the underdog in this race. The deck's stacked against her.

[–] reddig33@lemmy.world 31 points 2 months ago (2 children)

No. It’s not good. It means we are going to get screwed by the electoral college bullshit again.

[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 10 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

You misunderstand. The fact that the EC is undemocratic bullshit isn't what's good. What's good is that we're staying aware of the problem. We know there's a not insignificant chance Harris ends up Clinton 2.0. So this time, we have a chance to avoid complacency.

[–] Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world 19 points 2 months ago (3 children)

The fact that it’s this close further erodes my faith in humanity. That’s not good.

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[–] Tyfud@lemmy.world 12 points 2 months ago

Being motivated doesn't change 300 year old bullshit laws that remove the democratic power of of all but a handful of swing states voting.

[–] demesisx@infosec.pub 9 points 1 month ago

but you’re doing your part, censoring posts critical of her

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[–] nieminen@lemmy.world 59 points 2 months ago (5 children)

Hope she wins, and pushes through something to dismantle the collage. We need ranked choice.

[–] kescusay@lemmy.world 35 points 2 months ago (1 children)

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is a good first step: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

[–] bamboo@lemmy.blahaj.zone 10 points 2 months ago (3 children)

This is just a bandaid and the conservative justices on the supreme court will strike it down for some stupid reason.

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[–] vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.works 17 points 2 months ago (3 children)

We cant dismantle the electoral college easily, but what we can do is revoke the law putting caps on the number of representatives and electoral college votes. It wouldnt be perfect but it may be enough to knee cap the GOP for awhile. Also pass a law that allows reps to vote remotely from home offices in their districts.

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[–] ikidd@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago (6 children)

Unless she gets the presidency, the Democrats roll up supermajorities in the House and Senate, and a majority of states put in Democratic governors, this isn't happening. IE: it isn't happening.

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[–] FenrirIII@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Don't hold your breath. The system works for the right people

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[–] Eiri@lemmy.ca 6 points 2 months ago

Even without ranked choice it would be an upgrade to be rid of the college

[–] Zerlyna@lemmy.world 56 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

Cat ladies doing our part! 💪😻

[–] Ghostalmedia@lemmy.world 28 points 2 months ago

Don’t stop. The popular vote isn’t enough, and Trump is still a slight favorite to win.

[–] CatsGoMOW@lemmy.world 26 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Cat gentleman doing my part! 💪😻

[–] simplejack@lemmy.world 16 points 2 months ago

Cat doing my part! 💪😻

[–] transientpunk@sh.itjust.works 14 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Cat theydie doing my part! 💪😻

[–] thegr8goldfish@startrek.website 33 points 2 months ago (3 children)

If Diaper wins I'm done. Just move to the boonies and just go full media blackout until 2028 or when the zombies show up

[–] Raiderkev@lemmy.world 28 points 2 months ago (2 children)

The boonies are full of red hats. That's the last place you'll want to be

[–] mememuseum@lemmy.world 9 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Deep cover infiltration!

[–] DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social 11 points 2 months ago

(offer not available to all melanin counts)

[–] RunningInRVA@lemmy.world 3 points 2 months ago

If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em?

[–] smeenz@lemmy.nz 22 points 2 months ago (1 children)

If trump wins, what makes you think there will be an election in 2028 ?

[–] linearchaos@lemmy.world 15 points 2 months ago

He's been pretty open about their not being another need to vote

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[–] CharlesDarwin@lemmy.world 23 points 2 months ago

I really hate our electoral college system. Giving undue privilege to certain regions, most especially rural areas, is exceedingly stupid and just holds this country back so very much. It'd be one thing if more weight was given to the areas that the most going for them - as far as GDP/brain power/influence and so on. But instead, it's the opposite.

Apologists for the slavery-era holdover that is the EC will say "but the candidates will just mostly go to big cities" - yeah, NO KIDDING. That's where the fucking people are. That's who the government serves. Not land. Right now the candidates mostly campaign in "battleground states" because of the stupid and backward EC. Instead of trying to get the most votes across the entire nation.

Ridiculous.

Our Senate and House are not that much better than the way we choose Presidents, either. The population of states is not given proper consideration, even for the House.

[–] pyre@lemmy.world 21 points 2 months ago (4 children)

"person may lose the election by getting the most votes" is this even a thing outside the US?

i know winning without a majority vote is a thing in multiparty systems where the winner will have plurality instead... but having the majority vote and losing is just fucking insane to me.

[–] Viper_NZ@lemmy.nz 8 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Unfortunately yes, it’s huge problem with first past the post systems.

[–] pyre@lemmy.world 4 points 2 months ago (1 children)

how?

i was talking about electoral college. never heard a party receiving a majority vote losing in the first past the post system.

[–] Viper_NZ@lemmy.nz 5 points 2 months ago

A good example is the 1981 election in New Zealand, where the Labour Party won more votes but the National Party won more seats and formed the government.

[–] floofloof@lemmy.ca 4 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Whether it's possible for a party to win a majority of votes but lose an election, in a first-past-the-post system, will depend on the how the electoral districts are drawn, the voter turnout in each district, and the geographical distribution of the majority. The system itself does allow this to happen.

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[–] circuitfarmer@lemmy.sdf.org 17 points 2 months ago

Empty land doesn't vote. But it can get you extra representation per capita, somehow.

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