Just checking it against the Merseyside predictions and they are pretty solid still. The whole region goes red (thanks to a big swing in Southport) with the Greens the main opposition in most places and the Tories often finishing in 5th.
this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2024
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As an election nerd, I would hate to live in Merseyside because it's the most boring place electorally. ๐
Oh indeed. My constituency was at least once Tory but I have friends in an adjoining one that's one of the safest seats in the country. It doesn't really encourage much electoral enthusiasm.
As an election nerd I would hate to live anywhere in the UK because FPTP is just ๐คฎ
And I don't just mean that from the perspective of what's best democratically (though that's true too). I mean figuring out how preferences are likely to flow and which candidate is going to end up in the 2CP (or, as was the case in my particularly close and exciting electorate, the 3CP) is so much nerdy fun.
Some of these look questionable, but YouGov's MRP polling has been the most accurate in the past.
My constituency has the Conservatives not only losing, but going down to third!
The danger is that if enough people think this, some may not turn out, thinking "yeah Labour has this in the bag, I don't need to vote", which may lead to higher-than-anticipated results for the tories.
There is a case for that, but I think the main driving force for turnout in this election will be the fact that people are just sick of the Conservatives and want to punish them.
Yeah definitely, I don't think that they'll actually win. Just that they'll likely perform better than these polls are suggesting, in part because of the reason I suggested above, and in part because of the more general trend over the last decade of conservatives exceeding polling expectations (possibly due to the so-called "shy tory" effect).
Ouch.
Labour are 50% ahead of everyone else in my constituency, it's been red for quite a while though so no great surprise.