this post was submitted on 03 Jul 2024
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UK Politics

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General Discussion for politics in the UK.
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Some proper knife edge seats in there.

Ashford on a 0.08%. If 40000 people turn up, that's a margin of 32 people.

Or is that 16, since it's a swing? Either way, 10pm onwards will be interesting!

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[โ€“] Jackthelad@lemmy.world 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

There is a case for that, but I think the main driving force for turnout in this election will be the fact that people are just sick of the Conservatives and want to punish them.

[โ€“] Zagorath@aussie.zone 3 points 4 months ago

Yeah definitely, I don't think that they'll actually win. Just that they'll likely perform better than these polls are suggesting, in part because of the reason I suggested above, and in part because of the more general trend over the last decade of conservatives exceeding polling expectations (possibly due to the so-called "shy tory" effect).