this post was submitted on 04 Jun 2024
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chapotraphouse
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Nerds love second order derivative arguments.
"It's still increasing but the rate at which it's increasing is going down"
Or, as people who don't have a lanyard cutting off oxygen to their brain correctly perceived it, shits still going up.
"We're still heading off the cliff at insane speed, but the rate of acceleration has somewhat slowed"
Aka we're approaching terminal velocity
Luckily soon we will slow down very quickly
Nixon made a similar argument once. It’s the 3rd derivative since inflation is the first derivative of a currency’s buying power.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_derivative#Economic_example
Just keep taking derivatives and eventually you'll find one going in the direction you want.
This is e^x erasure
Hah, yeah.
But on a real-world data set, even if the underlying phenomenon is e^x, you'll keep amplifying sample noise until the derivatives are basically random. Assuming you even have enough data to keep taking derivatives.