this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2024
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[–] NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 24 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 children)

Hmm, the real question is whether this is consistent year over year... beating the S&P500 one year doesn't really indicate anything.

Also there are 535 people in the US congress but only like 30 on these two lists... and not the same 30 both years. How many lost money in those same years?

[–] Kecessa@sh.itjust.works 9 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 children)

The list is much longer if you search for it, that's ~~hysterical~~ only the ones above and close to the same return as SPY

[–] NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 13 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Assuming you meant "historical", then these two years of data imply that ~5% of congress members beat the S&P500 per year, and not the same people every year... which seems statistically insignificant.

[–] Kecessa@sh.itjust.works 14 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (2 children)

I don't know what happened with my auto correct on that word as I think I meant to say "only" 🤔

Here's a longer list

And the original source is this website

https://unusualwhales.com/

2021: https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/full

2022: https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/congress-trading-report-2022

2023: https://unusualwhales.com/politics/article/congress-trading-report-2023

[–] GenEcon@lemm.ee 9 points 7 months ago

Thanks! This completly debunks the insider trade myth. You would expect a Gaussian distribution around the mean, which would be a market neutral index. And you get even a slightly to the left shifted Gaussian bell curve.

[–] NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 4 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Ah, well there you go then... 25ish people out of 535?

Again, it'd be worrying if the same people were consistently ahead of the market... but that would also be super obvious.

[–] Kecessa@sh.itjust.works 7 points 7 months ago

Yep, people make a big thing out of it and maybe the proportion of them that beat SPY is higher than the proportion of random investors that do it, but there's no good way to say 🤷