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By my reckoning, the GOP has lost 16 of their last 19 special elections. Several of them being in so called "red" states.
Yep. It's one of the reasons I'm skeptical of polling this year. It seems like the difficulty pollsters have reaching various demographics that are likely to vote for Democrats is getting worse, not better. They try to compensate by weighting their results, but it's not an exact science, and Dems are consistently overperforming versus what the polls say.
It's been +9 points nationwide since Roe V. Wade was overturned.
Yep. That doesn't mean anything is in the bag, of course. We still have to fight like hell for every vote.
But it does mean we shouldn't be all doom and gloom.
Honestly if people feel like it's in the bag, they're less likely to vote. Seeing losses might encourage higher turnout to overcorrect and this might well be how we end up with Trump again.
Many people change their minds at the last minute before casting their ballots. Polling is science, but not quite so at the same time.
Not to mention the ones that just lie. No one will ever know so they do it just to throw a wrench in the machine. Someone said the other day, "We are all just poltergeists in meat suits."
Polling companies use landline numbers. That tends to skew the results in favor of T****.