this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2023
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Russia will never use a nuclear missile because it would be a death sentence for them.
Russia's military is not a threat to the US in any way. They showed how corrupt and poorly-managed they are in the Ukraine invasion.
Everyone believed Russia's disinformation about their competence, but those lies fell apart the moment their military was put to the test.
The only significant global worry about Russia is that the state fails, they balkanize, and their poorly-secured WMDs make it into the hands of rogue actors.
Things have changed a lot since then. For instance, their own military contractors attacked their forces and invaded their mainland.
You know, like a competent army does.
Edit: also mearhsheimer's premise is deeply flawed and his reasoning only gets worse from there. I am shocked beyond belief that a political realist would assume Russia sees the Ukrainian conflict as an existential threat, or that Ukraine sees the destruction of Russia as a war goal.
This war began as a bullying landgrab and has turned into a shit show because Russia thought they had another Georgia on their hands.
Ukraine's military was pathetic around 2014, they were training militia with sticks and airsoft guns and the rest of the actual military arsenal was old soviet shite. I wouldn't consider them well equipped until a few months ago when most of the western military aid arrived.
How are they losing the war if they have already taken most of Bakhmut back and are pushing decently on most fronts of the war against a military power that dwarfs it in manpower and supposedly in tech.
Russia is already losing territory they took during this war and in some parts is about to lose territory it gained during the 2014 offensive that they definitely were not a part of wink wink.