Image is of Brazilian chuds storming the National Congress building in opposition to Lula winning the election, on January 8th, 2023, in their remarkably even shittier version of the January 6th events in America.
Bolsonaro, who is in the tragic category of pro-US South American leaders who are so awful and uncharismatic that even they can't get the US to help them overthrow a democratically elected left-ish government, has recently been facing that most elusive of things in this current world order: consequences for his actions. Bolsonaro and his friends have been under investigation by the police, and his passport has now been seized, meaning he is unable to leave the country. Alongside the man himself, the leader of the Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, has been caught up in searches and investigations. Brazilian Army Colonel Bernardo Correa Neto, a former aide to Bolsonaro, was very recently arrested upon his return to Brazil from the US, as well as another colonel.
From the Hexbear South American correspondent (a position I just made up), @Redcuban1959@hexbear.net:
Lol, they are really fucked. Iirc, this is a municipal election year in Brazil, Bolsonaro can't campaign publicly, he can't promote his candidates. The leader of his party is currently in prison. And even if he is released from prison, they are forbidden to communicate with each other. The high-ranking members of the Liberal Party are pretty much fucked because they can't communicate with each other and getting support from Bolsonaro could be very bad, as left-wing candidates will exploit the fact that Bolsonaro will probably be imprisoned for planning a coup.
The FBI seems to have concluded its investigation into Bolsonaro's money laundering scheme in the US and handed over its findings to the Brazilian Federal Police, I don't think Bolsonaro can even go to the US anymore, or any other country. And it could get even funnier, there is a very small chance of the Liberal Party being banned and all its seats in congress and the senate being transferred to other politicians, many of whom, even if they are conservative, will be much more favorable to Lula's social and economic reforms, as it has been proven that Bolsonaro used the party to finance the coup.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
To be fair, if all this was true then Biden shouldn't have won in 2020
80% of Americans politically are incoherent lotus eaters, one day they think he's too old but three months later they believe he's a robust elder statesmen who's tough on the "terrorists"
Basically I start from the assumption John Stewart and John Oliver are out of touch, like many leftists I don't believe they've clocked the magnitude of the right-wing shift American society has taken this last 4 years
Palestine will have absolutely no effect on Biden's re-electability chances and if the worse anyone can say in the confined context of American politics is that he's old, well Trump did that in 2020 and lost, what exactly is stopping Biden this time around?
I really don't see this at all, if you're talking public opinion
The entire frenzy about Ukraine proved that the American society, including the liberals, are just as bloodthirsty and racist with zero critical thinking ability against state-driven propaganda.
In other words, the propaganda machination is still working as intended, and the people remain as propagandized, if not more so than ever.
Most Americans want to end support for Ukraine though
Yes, after the US has achieved its strategic goal of destroying Europe’s economy through Ukraine.
Some factions of the security state may still want to stay in Ukraine to continue the robbery (the latest $60 bil aid to Ukraine bill is one of those) but most are ready to get out because Ukraine is irrelevant at this stage. European capital has already fallen in line with American capital, and the increased NATO spending in Europe will usher in austerity budgets across EU states like never before, paving the way for a “shock therapy” down the road.
The point is, many Americans want US troops to be out of Iraq and Afghanistan too, after years of devastation. That doesn’t mean they have turned to the left.
And a momentary support for the war that didn't even last a year doesn't mean they've turned to the right.
They don’t have to turn to the right because they are already on the right. That’s the reason the propaganda worked on them. Again, the point is that the public at large buy into the propaganda.
The sophistication of the American propaganda cannot simply be reduced to “Biden good, Trump bad. America good, China bad.” That’s more like the Soviet-style “American capitalism bad” propaganda that few people bought into. It’s much more nuanced than that. Everyone is at least on some level aware that America is the bad guy here, and that Biden’s age is a problem, but the propaganda worked because it allows them to justify why they’re still correct even when they’re wrong. The Stewart propaganda here is an excellent example of that: he did not avoid the subject of Biden’s age, not at all, he fully embraces that and tells you why even so, Biden is still a much more effective leader than Trump.
ok well the comment I was disagreeing with claimed that there has been a massive right-wing turn in the US over the last four years
Increased support for police, the total normalization of anti LGBTQ+ sentiment, the normalization of anti-vax politics, the total collapse of support for migrant rights, anti-asian and anti-muslim hate crimes on the rise
And as recent as last June support for the Ukrainian war was as high as 75% percent, maintained for two years despite the bloodbath. It's only during the last few months that it dropped to around 45%
And despite claims the majority of Americans support a ceasefire, as of Jan 5th 75% believe Israel receives either the "right amount of support" or "too little"
Compared to 2018, the rightward shift is real
Popular support for the police has absolutely cratered, best exemplified by dismal recruiting numbers across the country since 2020
This was already normal, it's just shifted to a smaller and more marginalized group because it's no longer as acceptable to openly hate gay and lesbian people
Yeah that's fair
From what prior support?
This does not represent a broad popular change but the increasing derangement of a fringe right wing.
Last June was barely over a year into it. And yeah, up to date numbers show collapsing support.
The majority of polls consistently show support for Israel declining and support for Palestine rising, both drastically.
No it isn't, and the claim that it is smacks of someone who isn't engaged in organizing. The US is ripe for communist agitation in a way it hasn't been in probably 90 years. My party work is flooded with radicalized new recruits and is reaching a far broader basis of casual support than ever before. Palestine marches, educational events, fundraising, all an order of magnitude more attendance over a sustained period of time. Those people are turning directly to communist organizers for what to do next and want to go beyond just Palestine, too. They hear us say Marxism-Leninism and genuinely want to know more.
I could cite a bunch of polls to support my position - support for unions, opposition to capitalism as an economic system, disbelief in the US's capacity to deliver economic or racial justice, the Palestine stuff I've already referenced. But you just seem like you're in disconnected doomer mode so whatever. Go join a party.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2023/09/18/most-americans-support-local-police-including-blacks-and-latinos/70893299007/ Popular support for police remains high
https://news.gallup.com/poll/1660/immigration.aspx
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/30/1216121806/anti-asian-american-discrimination-pew-survey It is not a matter of fringe groups, it's normalized both in public and by the media
Not really https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-poll-of-us-voters-finds-overwhelming-support-for-israel-over-hamas-in-gaza-war/
The US isn't even ripe for socdem agitation, let alone Communist agitation, I agree many youths are becoming radicalized, but it goes both ways and right wing radicalization is far more common than young people going to Palestine marches and becoming MLs, what point is there in pretending otherwise?
From that article: "In 2020, Americans' confidence in the police fell to a record low, driven in part by a growing racial divide on the issue, according to a Gallup poll conducted in the weeks after George Floyd was murdered by police officers in Minneapolis. About 48% of Americans said they had a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in police that year. That figure increased in 2021, but fell to 43% in 2023, according to Gallup's annual Confidence in Institutions poll."
A few percentage points on "how much immigration" does not demonstrate what you're saying it does. 2020 was historic highs for immigration support, so although it came down from there, it's much better than it was 20 or even 10 years ago.
You referred specifically to hate crimes, which I contend represent a fringe. Yes, there is a ton of persistent racism in US society.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-poll-biden-war-gaza-4159b28d313c6c37abdb7f14162bcdd1 "Broadly, the poll shows support for Israel and the Biden administration’s handling of the situation ebbing slightly further across the board. The poll shows 31% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the conflict, including just 46% of Democrats. That’s as an earlier spike in support for Israel following the Hamas attacks Oct. 7 sags."
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics/biden-poll-israel-gaza-young-voters/index.html "Only one-third of registered voters approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College finds, with young voters especially likely to express dissatisfaction. The finding aligns with other recent polling this month that showed significant partisan and generational divides over the Israel-Hamas war and Biden’s response."
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/15/1212913674/poll-israel-hamas-war-biden-democrats-republicans "The poll found Americans divided over Israel's military actions. Thirty-eight percent said the Israeli response has been too much, while an equal number said it's been "about right." The number of people who said the response has gone too far is up 12 points from a month ago."
Polls consistently show opinion on this issue has shifted dramatically and continues to do so. How you possibly come to any other conclusion is baffling.
It actually doesn't go both ways. Where are the massive rallies of fascists youth? What growing political movement and where? Right wing politics are pariah shit among young people. To claim that more people are getting radicalized into the right than supporting Palestine is just absolutely ridiculous. What on earth are you basing that on?
I know the conditions are ripe for communist organizing because I do it every day. I insist on pointing all this out because I'm sick of navel-gazing doomerism on this website. There is a real movement happening and it's embarrassing to be on here and so disconnected from it.
It's about as bad as it was at the height of the refugee crisis despite the fact government policy is far more severe and savage than it was 10 years ago, reading polls while keeping the context in view is important, otherwise you miss the significance of the shift
You're splitting hairs, a racist doesn't need to deck someone in the face for it to be considered a hate crime, point is discrimination against Asians and Muslims is up and not simply a matter of fringe fash groups
I don't understand how you can read any Palestine polls and form the conclusion that pro-Palestinians sentiment is a majority or popular position, it's not, which has been my whole point, yes 38 percent think Israel's response has gone too far (only took 4 months of slaughter to get to that point) but that other 62 percent are still there staring you in the face, 200 million Americans who don't give a fuck about dead Palestinians and even the 38 percent who think Israel "went too far" aren't likely to be reliable supporters of Palestinian liberation, you can't just take these polls at face value. The minute the government claps down on TikTok alot of that 38 percent is gonna suddenly disappear
Have you been in a classroom the last four years, half the kids are straight up on some incel ideologies lmao
Ok yeah sure, we'll see
The national security state prefers Biden over Trump and will press the scale to make a Biden win happen. The only real uncertainty factor in a Biden win is whether Biden gets replaced with a newer nominee before the election. But once a Biden vs Trump contest is locked in, Biden's going to be president barring him dying before inauguration.
I think the national security state may have more concerns about greater conflict in the region if Israel isn't brought to heel - I don't think they're ideologically committed zionists like Biden is. I'm not convinced they'd be just as satisfied with Trump, or even prefer him since he's easier to manage.
It's one thing to say he's old, or he's gaffe-prone. But him forgetting basic facts and hitting brick walls on memory issues is another thing. This will continue to be an issue as more incidents occur.