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Does anyone know a way of calculating the energy needed to heat a home/room?
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What you're describing is similar to the approach I've already taken which is reassuring! The problem I've got is that it only really works if the weather's fairly consistent, but the problem I have is that the property I'm in is very old, with fairly naff insulation and huge, single-pane windows that get battered by wind from an open aspect. I think for most people your approach would work well, though.
And, yeah, I don't mind the temperature peaking and troughing for a couple of hours every now and then, but I appreciate that's not for everyone!
If you have such a system up and running already you could try to modify it before ripping it out and starting from scratch.
Borrowing an idea from the machine learning approach you could additionally take the difference in average outside temperature yesterday and the average forecasted outside temperature today. Then multiply that by a weight (the machine learning approach would find this value for you but a single weight can also be found by hand) and subtract it from the target temperature before the division step discussed previously. Effectively saying "you don't need to heat as much today since it will be a little warmer".
I fear that's about all you can do with this approach without massively overcomplicating things.
...you say? 🤔