this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2023
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If anything, the US's engagements in Vietnam and, more recently, the Middle East have shown that eradicating an insurgent force is incredibly difficult, to the point of being almost impossible. On top of that, there are weapons used during the GWOT that wouldn't (shouldn't(?)) Be used against American citizens, unless their goal is to be rulers of the ashes. On top of that, there are plenty of American Servicemembers that would straight up refuse to attack American citizens, and would potentially aid the insurgency with things like vehicles and ammo.
Add on top of that the extensive gun culture and sheer number of veterans in the general US population and I'd say they have a fighting chance.
I say this all as a former military intelligence analyst myself.
You were slackin at your job if you don't understand that the majority of people would oppose these insurgents, by definition, since that is how democracy works.
There is no situation in which domestic insurgents would not be crushed utterly. They'd be heavily restricted in movement, denied resupply, theyd lose contact with their families, friends, etc as well as all cellular communication. They would not have air superiority. They wouldn't even be able to contest air superiority. The most advanced counter-terrorism force in human history would be tracking them. When caught, they will absolutely land in Gitmo, at best, and will absolutely give up everything because these are not hardened fighters, these are your neighbors.
The US is a fucking fortress. This is a complete non-starter. We haven't even touched on actual military engagement yet. I'm not convinced it would even ever get to a point where it was necessary.
If it ever was, the US would have to show the world that a challenge to its supremacy on its territory by (now non-)citizens in open rebellion absolutely will not be allowed to happen.
The affected areas will completely locked down. The insurgents will lose all access to travel, because the entire area will. Then it's just counter-terrorist procedure practiced over 20 years thousands of miles away.
My friend, I don't know your qualifications, but I can tell you that the Viet Cong and AL Qaeda won against the most advanced COIN force in the world.
Except no they definitely did not.
You're right, sorry I meant the Taliban
No you didn't. You probably don't even realize the independent nation of Afghanistan negotiated with the Taliban for an American withdrawal, because that would fuck up your fantasy. It's toward the end, here, and is my favorite response to "Afghanistan was American Imperialism"
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-war-afghanistan
The Taliban won zero engagements of significance and retook 0 territory from US forces. US forces toppled the Taliban in weeks. In any engagement, they suffered 30:1 casualty rates or more.
You don't even understand the framework of the engagement, much less who "won."