this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2023
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It depends on how much Nigeria is committed to the invasion since they are a strong regional power. If they manage to drum up popular support and launch a committed attack, Niger's prospects don't look good. But that's a big if.
looking at the situation, it really feels like rather than trying to find who's stronger, one should really be looking for who's weaker. Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea combined probably can't resist the rest of ECOWAS or even Nigeria alone given that they're already fighting off insurgents and militias and shit. but Nigeria's president is also very unpopular and a war might terminally destabilize his position, and the amount of troops proposed (25,000) doesn't seem enough to hold all of Niger especially if it descends into guerrilla warfare.