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Polling is volatile and things move quickly in elections, especially when they're over a year apart.
This time in 2011, Obama was polling about the same as Biden is now: low 40s approval, low 50s disapproval. Gallup's Aug 8-14 2011 poll had Obama at 40 approve/52 disapprove. For that matter Trump in 2019 was seeing similar numbers. In early fall 2020 and 2016, Trump was polling in the complete dumps and the polls were predicting landslide dem wins. Early fall 2008 showed McCain slightly more likely to win than not. Fall polling in 2012 showed a bare Obama advantage, but there was enough data there saying that Romney was going to win that without sites like 538, it wasn't at all obvious who was favored.
It could be that Biden will remain weak. But people were predicting that Biden's weak approval numbers were going to hurt in the 2022 midterms, and it was easily the best dem midterm in decades. If not for CA and NY dropping the ball dems would have even held the house! Which is basically insane. There's no reason to be confident that the polling data will stay the same. In fact, it's almost certain that polling numbers will change, and dramatically, in the months ahead. In which direction is far less certain.
The point being... Polling, today, of an election in fifteen months, is borderline worthless. We also have one data point suggesting Biden's weak numbers aren't actually an albatross at the ballot box.
polls and Jokes Aside, what would make you think that Biden's popularity is actually going to increase? Biden is no Obama. Especially if there is both Cornel West and Joe Manchin who will be chipping away at both his left and centrist support. It could even be the GOP splits and runs 2 or more candidates. I Don't think there even is precedent for this, and well, I'm just gonna say I don't think Biden has the kind of political acumen to navigate that kind of chaotic and unprecedented election year.
West is a nothingburger. If you think he'll impact anything other than a 2000-redux, you're spending too much time on online politics. Same deal for the GOP splitting. Manchin, quite simply, won't run for president. He likes attention but he's not dumb. He might be an asshole but dumb is the last thing he is, and if he wanted to sabotage the democratic party he's had far better opportunities to do just that for years.
Trump wasn't Obama either, and his popularity went up. Obama wasn't even "Obama" (as we think of him today) at this stage stage in his presidency. The year three slump is not some historical aberration or oddity. All three of them had near identical polling numbers (~40 up, ~50 down) at this stage in their presidency. Clinton wasn't looking much better at this stage either: mid 40s approve, low 40s disapprove at this stage. He went on to have the largest popular vote win (nine points!) we've had since Reagan's win in 1984.
Polling now is borderline worthless.
Why are Democrats Lying about the 2000 election? Gore Won, the Bush Bros sabotaged the election, Bush's victory was declared by the supreme court.
Likewise far more registered Dems voted Bush than all green voters combined.
Stop rewriting history and legitimizing the Bush Administration.
Very True, we cannot prediction the future, that's why I think by this time next year Cornel West will be the front runner 😎
I want some of whatever you're smoking!
true and justice my dear brother/sister