politics
Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!
Rules:
- Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.
Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.
Example:
- Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
- Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
- No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive. Similarly, if you see posts along these lines, do not engage. Report them, block them, and live a happier life than they do. We see too many slapfights that boil down to "Mom! He's bugging me!" and "I'm not touching you!" Going forward, slapfights will result in removed comments and temp bans to cool off.
- Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
- No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning
We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.
All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.
That's all the rules!
Civic Links
• Congressional Awards Program
• Library of Congress Legislative Resources
• U.S. House of Representatives
Partnered Communities:
• News
view the rest of the comments
Biden beat trump in 2020, now he is polling neck and neck with Biden, we Need to Run Someone Else or Trump is Going To Win.
Polling is volatile and things move quickly in elections, especially when they're over a year apart.
This time in 2011, Obama was polling about the same as Biden is now: low 40s approval, low 50s disapproval. Gallup's Aug 8-14 2011 poll had Obama at 40 approve/52 disapprove. For that matter Trump in 2019 was seeing similar numbers. In early fall 2020 and 2016, Trump was polling in the complete dumps and the polls were predicting landslide dem wins. Early fall 2008 showed McCain slightly more likely to win than not. Fall polling in 2012 showed a bare Obama advantage, but there was enough data there saying that Romney was going to win that without sites like 538, it wasn't at all obvious who was favored.
It could be that Biden will remain weak. But people were predicting that Biden's weak approval numbers were going to hurt in the 2022 midterms, and it was easily the best dem midterm in decades. If not for CA and NY dropping the ball dems would have even held the house! Which is basically insane. There's no reason to be confident that the polling data will stay the same. In fact, it's almost certain that polling numbers will change, and dramatically, in the months ahead. In which direction is far less certain.
The point being... Polling, today, of an election in fifteen months, is borderline worthless. We also have one data point suggesting Biden's weak numbers aren't actually an albatross at the ballot box.
Very True, we cannot prediction the future, that's why I think by this time next year Cornel West will be the front runner 😎
I want some of whatever you're smoking!
true and justice my dear brother/sister
polls and Jokes Aside, what would make you think that Biden's popularity is actually going to increase? Biden is no Obama. Especially if there is both Cornel West and Joe Manchin who will be chipping away at both his left and centrist support. It could even be the GOP splits and runs 2 or more candidates. I Don't think there even is precedent for this, and well, I'm just gonna say I don't think Biden has the kind of political acumen to navigate that kind of chaotic and unprecedented election year.
West is a nothingburger. If you think he'll impact anything other than a 2000-redux, you're spending too much time on online politics. Same deal for the GOP splitting. Manchin, quite simply, won't run for president. He likes attention but he's not dumb. He might be an asshole but dumb is the last thing he is, and if he wanted to sabotage the democratic party he's had far better opportunities to do just that for years.
Trump wasn't Obama either, and his popularity went up. Obama wasn't even "Obama" (as we think of him today) at this stage stage in his presidency. The year three slump is not some historical aberration or oddity. All three of them had near identical polling numbers (~40 up, ~50 down) at this stage in their presidency. Clinton wasn't looking much better at this stage either: mid 40s approve, low 40s disapprove at this stage. He went on to have the largest popular vote win (nine points!) we've had since Reagan's win in 1984.
Polling now is borderline worthless.
Why are Democrats Lying about the 2000 election? Gore Won, the Bush Bros sabotaged the election, Bush's victory was declared by the supreme court.
Likewise far more registered Dems voted Bush than all green voters combined.
Stop rewriting history and legitimizing the Bush Administration.
If there is one thing that should be your takeaway from the last decade of US politics and media coverage, it should be that polls are not to be trusted.
A good pollster can make their data say whatever they want.
What we need is for people to get out and vote. The threat of Trump should be enough to mobilize voters. It's not like Biden was an inspirational candidate last time. And all he's done is go out and do probably a bit better than most thought he would.
I'll agree with you there that polls generally can't be trusted, and I agree people need to get out and vote, but It makes our job a lot easier if you have a candidate that people actually like. So I really hope -- for the sake of the republic -- that they convince Joe to step down and open up the primaries.