this post was submitted on 03 Feb 2025
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I think we shouldn't just see this as a Trump 2.0 thing either. This has been going on for at least a decade now. It's just that T2.0 has taken things to the point that it can't be ignored. NAFTA2 was pretty bad for us, and Biden hasn't done anything to make things easier.
Even if we don't get a Putin scene where Trump rewrites the constitution and gets a third term (somehow when he's like 80 and clearly suffering from dementia), I have little hope that the next president will be any better. Even the best case scenario would be someone who's completely occupied putting out the internal fires Trump has set with napalm, and won't have time to give the rest of the world much thought, let alone Canada.
Relying so much on the US was never such a good idea, and there won't be any stability down south for the next decade at least.
I find "Trump 2.0" useful to differentiate how I expect things to go down. Trump 1.0 came in and and flailed a lot. The US' system of checks and balances moderated many of his "policy goals". Trump 2.0 looks to replace competence in the bureaucracy with loyalty, and subverting any checks and balances.
A lot of power has accumulated within the office of the Presidency in the US. I used to figure that an advantage of the US system vs the Westminster model is that a PM with a majority in Parliament has very little he can't do, as long as they are able to whip the votes. It seems that the US has drifted into an elected King almost. Broad authority within the Presidency will probably not go away anytime soon.
This makes for a very unstable government, assuming elections even stay fair.
Trump is old, there is going to be a post Trump era soon, but I don't see a reversal if this model of governance. We can only deal with the US in 4 year terms from now on. Anything long term is too uncertain.