this post was submitted on 21 Jan 2025
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The issue is that you claim that a causes b. So at a, we can know that b will follow. Therefore we can identify b when we see a.
They say, a don't cause b for certain. So at a, we can't know that b will follow. Therefore we can't identify b when we see a, as we could misidentify.
That is not defining the norm at all. That is pointing out that it is logically invalid to identify b at a.
Think about it like this, most people who are born will be 23yo at some point but not all. So while it is a fair assumption to assume that a child will be 23yo, it would be wrong to claim that it will be 23yo. So when the child is born, there is no way to determine whether or not a child will be 23yo. it probably will but it might not. The norm is still that the child will be 23yo, but that doesn't change the reality that some won't.