this post was submitted on 18 Nov 2024
180 points (97.4% liked)

news

23571 readers
924 users here now

Welcome to c/news! Please read the Hexbear Code of Conduct and remember... we're all comrades here.

Rules:

-- PLEASE KEEP POST TITLES INFORMATIVE --

-- Overly editorialized titles, particularly if they link to opinion pieces, may get your post removed. --

-- All posts must include a link to their source. Screenshots are fine IF you include the link in the post body. --

-- If you are citing a twitter post as news please include not just the twitter.com in your links but also nitter.net (or another Nitter instance). There is also a Firefox extension that can redirect Twitter links to a Nitter instance: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/libredirect/ or archive them as you would any other reactionary source using e.g. https://archive.today/ . Twitter screenshots still need to be sourced or they will be removed --

-- Mass tagging comm moderators across multiple posts like a broken markov chain bot will result in a comm ban--

-- Repeated consecutive posting of reactionary sources, fake news, misleading / outdated news, false alarms over ghoul deaths, and/or shitposts will result in a comm ban.--

-- Neglecting to use content warnings or NSFW when dealing with disturbing content will be removed until in compliance. Users who are consecutively reported due to failing to use content warnings or NSFW tags when commenting on or posting disturbing content will result in the user being banned. --

-- Using April 1st as an excuse to post fake headlines, like the resurrection of Kissinger while he is still fortunately dead, will result in the poster being thrown in the gamer gulag and be sentenced to play and beat trashy mobile games like 'Raid: Shadow Legends' in order to be rehabilitated back into general society. --

founded 4 years ago
MODERATORS
 

back in my map era, we're ukrainemaxxing right now


Declarations of the imminent doom of Ukraine are a news megathread specialty, and this is not what I am doing here - mostly because I'm convinced that whenever we do so, the war extends another three months to spite us. Ukraine has been in an essentially apocalyptic crisis for over a year now after the failure of the 2023 counteroffensive, unable to make any substantial progress and resigned to merely being a persistent nuisance (and arms market!) as NATO fights to the last Ukrainian. In this context, predicting a terminal point is difficult, as things seem to always be going so badly that it's hard to understand how and why they fight on. In every way, Ukraine is a truly shattered country, barely held together by the sheer combined force of Western hegemony. And that hegemony is weakening.

I therefore won't be giving any predictions of a timeframe for a Ukrainian defeat, but the coming presidency of Trump is a big question mark for the conflict. Trump has talked about how he wishes for the war to end and for a deal to be made with Putin, but Trump also tends to change his mind on an issue at least three or four times before actually making a decision, simply adopting the position of who talked to him last. And, of course, his ability to end the war might be curtailed by a military-industrial complex (and various intelligence agencies) that want to keep the money flowing.

The alignment of the US election with the accelerating rate of Russian gains is pretty interesting, with talk of both escalation and de-escalation coinciding - the former from Biden, and the latter from Trump. Russia very recently performed perhaps the single largest aerial attack of Ukraine of the entire war, striking targets across the whole country with missiles and drones from various platforms. In response, the US is talking about allowing Ukraine to hit long-range targets in Russia (but the strategic value of this, at this point, seems pretty minimal).

Additionally, Russia has made genuine progress in terms of land acquisition. We aren't talking about endless and meaningless battles over empty fields anymore. Some of the big Ukrainian strongholds that we've been spending the last couple years speculating over - Chasiv Yar, Kupiansk, Orikhiv - are now being approached and entered by Russian forces. The map is actually changing now, though it's hard to tell as Ukraine is so goddamn big.

Attrition has finally paid off for Russia. An entire generation of Ukrainians has been fed into the meat grinder. Recovery will take, at minimum, decades - more realistically, the country might be permanently ruined, until that global communist revolution comes around at least. And they could have just made a fucking deal a month into the war.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 86 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (7 children)

The Hill Op-Ed: World War III is now Trump’s to lose

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5000642-trump-world-war-iii/

Negotiations with Russia would be futile. History tells us that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s words are meaningless. Anything short of a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and the restoration of their 1991 borders would be a victory for the Kremlin.

The defeat of Russian forces is the best outcome, and precision deep-strike weapons are a vital part of that outcome. Now is the time to invoke General Ulysses S. Grant — to close with and destroy the enemy, applying relentless pressure until they capitulate.

Bruh, these libs really want us all to die

by Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet,

Deeply unserious country.

[–] GnastyGnuts@hexbear.net 41 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Now is the time to invoke General Ulysses S. Grant — to close with and destroy the enemy, applying relentless pressure until they capitulate.

When I think of how I should beat a nuclear power, I always think back to the US Civil War ...

Opinion Columnists: Worse Than Worthless?

[–] VILenin@hexbear.net 35 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Opinion columnists should be fed into wood chippers for the good of humanity

[–] ElChapoDeChapo@hexbear.net 28 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)
[–] Rod_Blagojevic@hexbear.net 16 points 1 day ago

They probably weren't even thinking about the civil war, they probably mean the indian wars.

[–] newsmega_enjoyer@hexbear.net 38 points 1 day ago

Russia is dragging down China's economy:

Presently, a badly weakened Russia represents a significant military and economic drag on China. Both economies are reeling due to collapsing fundamentals and under the weight of massive military expenditures.

Evidence that China's economy reeling:

Beijing is being forced to invest $1.4 trillion domestically “to revive the economy, authorizing local governments to refinance crushing debts that have left some cities unable to pay their bills.”

Russia is forcing China to invest domestically and allow local governments to refinance debts.

[–] MolotovHalfEmpty@hexbear.net 11 points 1 day ago

I realise this is just two op-ed writers (one of whom is a 'former' military intelligence officer), but whenever I read this kind of rhetoric from the States I remember an inverview I heard about ten years ago with a former senior diplomat whose career had spanned the 70s to the 2000s. In short his depressed, fatalist arguement was; America will destroy itself because it's given up on diplomacy. He argued that the US simply didn't train diplomats anymore and that the service was full of political think tank graduates with zero interest or understanding of diplomacy, all high on their own supply of limitless American superiority.

I can't find that interview (it was on some kind of early, possibly university linked affairs podcast) but for the decade or so since I've seen articles bemoaning the turmoil and staffing issues for the state department and diplomatic services.

During Obama's second term there was a bunch of articles from journalists on behalf of anonymous diplomats begging for a more robust focus on diplomacy and the service after his appointment of special envoys had failed and been filled with vanity appointments.

William Luers (plenty ghoulish, but less foaming at the mouth than those who came after) said to the New York Times that as viloence became frames as "less between states and more dealing with terrorists, the military and the C.I.A. have been in the driver’s seat in dealing with governments throughout the Middle East and in state to state relations.”

In 2021 a study was done to try and address the scale of brain drain:

Their report finds that “31.42% (797) of current officers surveyed are seriously considering leaving the Foreign Service and are actively exploring their options. Of these officers, 31.27% (247) plan to leave in the next year and 56.58% (447) plan to leave in the next five years. This indicates a clear discontent within the Foreign Service that will increase attrition above the Department’s historical averages”.

And the situation only seems to have gotten worse.

[–] Magnolia_Marxist@hexbear.net 47 points 2 days ago (1 children)

Ulysses S. Grant famously used precision deep-strike weapons to eliminate Vicksburg and Jackson instead of going down the Mississippi and taking them directly. Ukraine is right to imitate him.

[–] sentient@hexbear.net 32 points 1 day ago (1 children)

everyone remembers that despite the nuclear brinksmanship between lincoln and davis the war managed to end without turning either half of the country into radioactive ash

[–] ElChapoDeChapo@hexbear.net 23 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

without turning either half of the country into radioactive ash

possadist-ufo sicko-wistful

[–] Maturin@hexbear.net 50 points 2 days ago (1 children)

now is the time to invoke General Ulysses S. Grant”

Great, they don’t understand 2 wars

[–] Parsani@hexbear.net 43 points 2 days ago

Be careful or they will misunderstand a third too

[–] kittin@hexbear.net 43 points 1 day ago

If only Germany had V2 rockets they might have won

[–] estii@hexbear.net 32 points 2 days ago

Mark T(h)oth

consigning us all to the eternal judgment