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That's a lot of "ifs" and "ands".
We gotta talk about what "a lot" means.
How many places does it not matter what you vote whether it be "rural red" or hardcore "big city blue"? Answer -a lot. Better answer -any is to fucking many.
Far less than hundreds of thousands of towns and municipalities where local elections have pitiful turn outs most of the time and things are regularly decided by just a handful of votes of difference. 5 people could mean the difference between a far right fascist city council or school board and something sensible.
Even in my fairly decently sized city, our school board was just 300 votes away from going full tilt book banning and transphobic.
Just vote. It's one day a YEAR, stop worrying about how many people are on your side and just do it. If nothing changes, then nothing changes but at least there exists the possibility of good change
Along with the other comment, I'd like to point out that many states are moving towards ranked choice voting, which will supercede the electoral college. The more people participate in voting, the more likely that will become the new way it happens.this would make every vote matter, and stop some votes from mattering more than others. Essentially guaranteeing the popular vote wins the election.
But honestly voting for president, while very hyped, is possibly one of the least important of your voting responsibility. Local laws influence your local area far more than the president, and local changes turn into state changes, and state changes turn into federal ones.
The president can't do anything on their own, they need support from Congress and the Senate to get anything but minor executive orders done (very limited power). People only voting for president is how we got a Republican supermajority in the house.
If you don't vote, but are able to, you lose the right to complain about how things are going. We're all on the same bus, please do your part to make sure we don't drive off a cliff.
Your right your on a car. A cattle car. Nothing can do will change the destination. I'll light a candle for your dream, perhaps Americans will wake up, perhaps the rich will become less greedy.