this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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Regime change and some punitive peace agreement that heavily favours Russia is my bet, explicitly including the Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk.Maybe a few other territories with high Russian populations.
They don't have the military capacity to annex or occupy vast areas, so only areas supportive of the Russian army will be possible to hold.
It'll likely be the start of some Ukrainian struggle session too, a bit like the uprisings and struggles that tore down the central powers and Russia after WW1.
Russia might have some issues too with recovering its military strength and adapting to a civilian economy - the war may be popular but that doesn't fix the contradictions in the russian economy.
They have a civilian economy. This is not total war.
They do, but the war still has impacted working people in Russia. Perhaps to their long term benefits, but it takes a lot of work to suddenly reorganise your economy around particularly large mobilisations, a massive boycott and sanctions movement, infrastructure damage, and the dead/injured.