The US and UK bombing Yemen, the terrorist attack in Iran then Iran Pakistan bombing each other and Jordan bombing Syria? Is this the west calling in favors from regional proxies to cause discord to throw shade to the ICJ case?

From journalist in Sana'a

Special sources tell me that if the aggression continues on Gaza, Yemen and Lebanon, Ansarullah/Houthis will seriously consider taking steps towards imposing what they are calling “The Al Aqsa Triangle.” The Al Aqsa Triangle is the official closure of three of world’s most important water chokepoints which includes the Suez Canal the Strait of Hormuz and Bab El Mandeb to all nations involved in the aggression. #Al_Aqsa_Triangle

https://nitter.net/Ymawryy/status/1748626517796552880#m

Do the Houthis have the ability to shut down the Straight of Hormuz? I guess for all these it would just take a pirate crew to take a few ships and the insurance companies won't cover trips made there. But that's a lot of distance from Houthis home port.

absolutely hilarious (in a sort of way) followup to my previous post about American ICBMs, holy shit (archived)

Sentinel ICBM incurs ‘critical’ cost breach, at risk of cancellation without SECDEF certification

The Minuteman III replacement’s costs ballooned by 37 percent and will take about two years longer than expected as officials reportedly discover hidden complications of silo construction.

WASHINGTON — The Air Force’s replacement for its nuclear-tipped Minuteman III ballistic missile fleet has suffered a “critical” cost breach and could be delayed by as much as two years, a service spokesperson confirmed to Breaking Defense, a setback for the program that officials have long warned could run into trouble.

The service notified Congress Thursday that LGM-35A Sentinel “has exceeded its initial cost projections,” the spokesperson said, prompting what’s known as a Nunn-McCurdy breach. According to the spokesperson, the Sentinel program’s 2020 baseline program acquisition unit cost of $118 million per missile — the sum of development, construction and procurement — increased by “at least 37 percent” to approximately $162 million in 2020 dollars, prompting a “critical” breach that requires Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to certify the program to stave off its cancellation.

The $96 billion Sentinel program is now estimated at about $131.5 billion in current dollars, Bloomberg reported, a hefty sum driven by unforeseen complications with silo and launch center construction. The program’s current objective for initial operational capability (IOC) is June 2029, which the Air Force spokesperson said could be delayed by as much as two years as a result of the issues.

A top modernization effort for the Defense Department, the Sentinel program’s issues have already drawn congressional scrutiny. And with strong backing from lawmakers, it seems unlikely the program will be terminated. “Sentinel is absolutely necessary for the future of our nuclear deterrent. I’m committed to conducting vigorous oversight of the program and ensuring the Air Force follows through on making the necessary changes to address the cost overruns while continuing to advance the program,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Ala., said in a statement today. “The Department must ensure that Sentinel is ready in time to replace the current ICBMs before they reach the end of their lives. Failure is not an option,” he added.

Northrop Grumman, which won the Sentinel contract in 2020, has struggled with supply chain woes, workforce shortages and clearance issues, the Government Accountability Office warned in June 2023. Officials recently have also been vexed by the program’s challenges, with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall lamenting its “unknown unknowns.”

also to reiterate this bit from the previous post:

On 14 December 2019, it was announced that Northrop Grumman had won the competition to build the future ICBM. Northrop won by default, as their bid was at the time the only bid left to be considered for the GBSD program (Boeing had dropped out of the bidding contest earlier in 2019).

So there isn't a backup plan here - the only company that can do this is struggling to do it. There was a discussion earlier in the thread about whether the US could restart its war machine, and, uh... maybe they straight up can't? Like, we're not talking about tanks or artillery shells here, these are ICBMs, a key element of nuclear deterrence, something considered necessary even in peacetime (at least by the ghouls in charge). I guess the Americans better hope the 14 nuclear ballistic subs they have still work... or adopt Jim Hacker thought

Last musing of the day: have any of the dipshit new atheists followed through on israel biblical rhetoric? Or silly little books moniker is reserved only for enemies of the state? *Ive looked through richard dawkins feed, nothing there, aside from march against anti-semitism, amazing bruh

An interesting trend in Central American politics are the victors of recent elections being outsiders with an anti-establishment theme. Some of them more left-leaning and others more right-wing. Bukele was considered an outsider and so was Castro in Honduras, along with Arevalo in Guatemala. Even Costa Rica took a right-wing turn with the anti-abortion/vaccine/lgbt Chaves.

Trump could see a similar result if he continues to position himself as an anti-establishment candidate that the power structures want to take down.

There’s been a lot of talk about the production capacity gap between Russia and NATO as it relates to artillery rounds specifically. Russia has retooled its economy and invested heavily in wartime production and is currently seeing it pay dividends both on the battlefield but also in the overall health of their economy. Meanwhile the NATO nations have refused to make the investment in restarting mass production of rounds, a capability liquidated and sold off under the guiding principles of neoliberalism, and instead has solely relied on draining existing stockpiles bits at a time. The result has been catastrophic for the Ukrainians tasked with dying on NATO’s behalf ever since the initial blitz push from the RusFed was repelled and the war has settled into a WWI style trench and artillery game of attrition.

I think though that we shouldn’t confuse an unwillingness with an inability. There’s no reason to believe that the US or Germany are incapable of making the investment to restart the mass production of artillery shells (or any mass produced weapon of war rather than the big ticket, hyper specialized war toys they prefer now). There’s an entire point to be made that in this moment of profitability crisis the only industries that are succeeding are the ones hand chosen by the state to be made so with direct subsidies and funding (re: Brenner & Riley’s Seven Theses in which they attempt to coin “political capitalism” as the new economic model post-neoliberalism). The general consensus seems to be that there’s so far been an unwillingness to commit to the production process because it’s been thought that the Russo-Ukrainian war will end before the investment will be worthwhile and then the general style of combat will return to anti-insurgency missions relying on drones and laser guided munitions rather than mass produced dumb bombs and shells. My fear is that if this calculation changes and there is heavy investment in restarting the NATO war machine it puts us on the path towards another world war. The European nations may see the success of the Russian economy under wartime policies and see the return of a military Keynesianism as an appealing out to their financial woes but, as we know from the start of the previous century, you can only build up your stock of weapons for so long before the imperative to use them arises. I’m worried that the long duree trends of the 21st century see the return of both multipolarity as well as great powers conflicts, but this time we have nukes. Guess there’s nothing to really do about it tho but enjoy the view

Comparing the lemmy.ml and lemmy.world front pages right now is sort of terrifying.

lemmy.ml:

1. AfD plans to turn Germany into authoritarian state, vice-chancellor warns

2. US forces strike Houthi sites in Yemen as Biden says allied action hasn't yet stopped ship attacks

3. North Korea training, providing weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis

4. Britain has flown 50 spy missions over Gaza in support of Israel

5. Infertility: Chemical substances omnipresent in everyday life are among the causes

Reasonable enough, right? Now compare it to lemmy.world:

1. Washington to Israel: Turn the lights back on in Gaza

2. NATO admiral warns of potential all-out war with Russia

3. Netanyahu Says 'From the River to the Sea,' a Phrase Zionists Claim is Genocidal

4. Putin could attack NATO in '5 to 8 years,' German defense minister warns

5. Poland is 'Next' After Russia Wins Ukraine War, Putin Ally Says

THREE OUT OF FIVE ARTICLES are just blatant warmongering trying to manifest a future Russia-NATO war. And this is a community that is supposed to be less extreme than Reddit's group of bloodthirsty clowns.

If Iran and Pakistan could target western military bases instead of each other, that would be great.

Edit: yes I meant Pakistan I am terminally online and very fucking tired. Iran did just hit Iraq but it was Pakistan that hit Iran.

Yemen fired a missile at, and seems to have hit, the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged, US-owned and operated container ship.

Meanwhile, another division is forced to retreat from Gaza after being defeated by the Gazan Resistance. Three divisions are left to be destroyed.

edit: the video going around of the ship fire is not of the Gibraltar Eagle; however, the missile strike on the Gibraltar Eagle is real and did occur