It depends on how hard you’re pushing. The higher your heart rate goes above a certain average across the total distance VO2Max may decrease because you’re pushing harder than you’re running farther.
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Yes, the transmission or the clutch is slipping.
Maybe your average heart rate have increased a little
I think the only useful information for VO2max is when you open the yearly graph and then you can see the trends. Otherwise, day-to-day, not accurate. Needs maybe a month of training to spit out a remotely useful number.
But speaking of this - VO2max of around 40 sounds about right, if you're not super active, running a few months. It's not really an indication of durability, how long you've run. The estimate is more about how much energy you can spend for a given heart rate.
In a year or so, if add some sprints, HIIT, hills, you'll be 50ish and rising :)
The Apple Watch likes you to kill yourself every run which isn’t the proper way to train. If you do a lot of zone2 running it will tank your VO2Max. I pay it no attention other than for giggles.
I've been increasing my running over the last 4 months. Most practice runs are slow, zone 2, heart rate 125. Sometimes I run the first 5k fast or mix it up by HIIT runs. The watch says my VO2Max has consistently increased and my last practice run, 5 days ago, hit a new personal high. 4 miles. So then two days ago, I'm at an actual 5k run, which is only 3 miles. I go all out, heart rate 157 average, time significantly faster than practices. My VO2Max goes down.
I know it's just an estimate, but this peeves me. I have two theories:
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distance matters. The real race was shorter so I get less credit.
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Race speed went up, but heart rate went way up. So maybe it's like in a car if you increased the RPM of the motor but the car speed didn't go up linearly. Like the transmission is slipping.