I think it's pretty obvious that Naiper's seat is way hotter. I've already heard rumors of him not surviving the weekend. But I'd argue that Norvell's potential delta-h is higher. If FSU can't turn it around vs Cal or SMU (two decent programs mind you, I'd rank them above Memphis and GT) that could doom Norvell.
this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2024
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I hung by Billy as long as I could, but Florida simply does not look good and, importantly, doesn't look better, even just eye-test better. On the lose-big, lose-small, win-small, win-big arc, we're often still losing big. We also don't look "normal" bad. We look weird-bad with a huge staff, but no special teams coordinator, a lack of discipline, a bizarre NIL strategy (hopefully in the past), and stubbornness you usually see from coaches on the far side of much more success. He might make it to bloody Sunday if we come to a back-room understanding with someone associated with a playoff team, but I don't see any way he coaches the Gators past this year.
FSU sucks, but I think they pull four or five wins out of their butts this year, and Norvell gets one more year to find a better quarterback and see which year was the fluke. In all honesty, they probably don't want to be in the market with us in the same year anyway. If both of us suck, why not go with the one with a richer alumni base and no conference insecurity? You don't necessarily have to go through every top SEC team to make the playoffs anymore.
fwiw, I think that trying to remain loyal is helpful. Having just been through a 2 decade coaching rigamaroll, I think part of what caused our downturn to last so long was our quick turnover rate, especially early in that stretch. With that said, I think that attitude kept me on the Pruitt bandwagon far longer than needed, and resentful when we acquired Heupel. But it seems like we finally found our guy and that things have stabilized. But as I've said before, I'm gonna be gator-chompin on some popcorn with action like this in Gainesville.
Looking at their coaching histories, I didn't realize both are in the Todd Graham tree. Honestly, they feel like they have very similar career trajectories. Napier is obviously on the scorching hot seat and his departure could (and should) be imminent whereas Norvell has a little more runway. But I think FSU would justified in pulling the plug if they go 4-8 or worse, regardless of the last 2 years of success.
Both programs also should have the resources to poach a decent sitting P4 head coach -- the thing is do they want to compete with each other for the carousel? There's only one Kiffin. But of course there are other good options (I think Eli Drinkwitz, Dave Doeren, and Mark Stoops are all possibilities). But to prevent the next guy from meeting the same fate, the athletic departments are going to have to rein in expectations from their rabid fanbases (to compare them to Texas, that was really what doomed Charlie Strong and Tom Herman from the start).
I'm of the belief that Stoops only has eyes for the pros. I think he has genuinely put kentucky in a good place over the last several years. He can now easily outperform the expectations for kentucky, and scoop up the back slaps associated. Maybe he jumps to FSU with the extra strength of schedule the SEC will have now, but I don't see him taking florida. Kiffin to florida would no joke kill me, but I highly doubt that he jumps for the same reason. I think he's turned Ole Miss into a much better job than florida or FSU.
Also getting ahead of the potential Kiffin -> UF rumors.
Do it and I self immolate in Ben Hill, I fucking dare you to do it UF.
There is absolutely no doubt we're going to test the water. Kiffin at this stage in his career would certainly be an upgrade over the Kiffin from his Gatlinburg UT days, and he's like the not-as-good-but-then-again-what-could-be modern version of Hatin'-Ass Spurrier. If nothing else, he seems to know how to separate a donor-base from its NIL dollars.