The timeline split after harambe. This is known
Technology
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It is known.
I wonder what our alternate timeline selves are doing. Good for them, right?
In Timeline-α the Visitors didn't turn away in disgust and Contact was approved. The Uplift process is well underway, environmental conditions have been stabilized and restoration is progressing well. Space travel is still restricted to the Solar System but Humanity is on track to full Membership. Ambassador Harambe has resumed his duties on the Council.
I have a sinking feeling that these moves are not about money, but more about power and manipulation. If you squeeze these user bases such that the savviest users are forced out, those more likely to ask "Why?" about damn near anything, you will own access to a group of people that can be influenced to think/do/buy whatever the top management and/or majority shareholders want. If you lose a few million users, what does it matter if they were dissidents to your goals?
Not money per se, but the oil of the 21st century: data.
I guarantee it's primarily about improving their ability to harvest and sell user data.
This is where my mind goes. Kinda convenient that Twitter and Reddit, both likely particularly dangerous to those seeking power happen to be destroyed seemingly intentionally in the same year ahead of a sure to be insane U.S. election season.
From everything I have observed, businesses are hunkering down for a recession in the next fiscal year. It explains the lay offs, the penny pinching, and puzzling decisions that look like business suicide.
For services that are free for users, advertising revenue and investment fund raisers are the only thing keeping them afloat. With banks like SVB getting seized by the FDIC, it's starting to scare investors. Advertisers are seeing the writing on the wall that people will stop spending as much as they used to. We are also probably seeing jacked up pricing across the board because businesses are taking what they can before it's gone.
So what's left? Squeeze users for money. Additionally, shed users that actually cost them money and these tend to be power users. The question, which everyone seems to be assuming is a foregone conclusion, is if this shedding strategy will end up killing the service. In reality, we don't know but the idealists would sure feel good if someone else ate their market share.
I'm just glad that federation is picking up steam in the social media space.
So why do layoffs at all if they don’t actually work? “People do all kinds of stupid things all the time,” Pfeffer says. “I don’t know why you’d expect managers to be any different.” https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/26/23571659/tech-layoffs-facebook-google-amazon
Also what hasn't been touched on very much in this thread is the increase in interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The money hose has shut off and expansionary business policy won't work for the foreseeable future even without a recession. All these internet companies have developed and grown in an essentially 0% interest rate environment that rewarded growth beyond all else. With rates increasing, investment in risky companies that may or may not grow is becoming a less attractive option and so I bet a lot of these non-profitable, growth-focused web companies are seeing liquidity dry up and are having to reach profitability to avoid bankruptcy since servicing new debt in this current interest environment is basically impossible without solid cashflow and a clear corporate vision.
This is leading to all these companies suddenly raising prices, cutting staff, choking competition, and cheaping out to try and break even instead of grow. It's a paradigm shift.
I agree with most of what you said. I would say classifying SVB as a seizure is probably not accurate. The FDIC only came in when it was clear SVB was going to fold and in fact insured far more than the 250k per account guaranteed. Mainly to try and stem a run on midsize banks because
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Many companies had large holdings, undiversified in these banks
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The banks were borderline negligent with how they handled those deposits, sticking them all in “safe” government bonds that ruins liquidity.
Once the interest rate on the bonds was lower than the base borrowing rate, no one would buy the bonds instead of just buying new bonds with a much higher guaranteed return.
So, given that, I would say the FDIC instead bailed out the banks. Something they would never do for you or I, or even a business with similar valuation as any of the banks customers.
The reality is that nothing is really dying and nothing is really changing. Twitter is still fully operational and other than a small hit nothing happened. Twitch already did a step back. For Reddit we'll see but only a really small percentage of reddit is using third party apps.
It's not the services that are dying, but the internet as we used to know.
Change is natural, but the services are all changing in a way not beneficial forthe users.
I think the "the internet is dying" perspectives are all incredibly overblown. They aren't going anywhere anytime soon. I remember all of the "Facebook is dead, I don't know anyone using Facebook!" posts, but I suspect many here are invested in some index fund that is being pulled upwards by Meta.
But how many people are still exchanging facebook contacts? Because I haven't met anyone anymore ...
This is the natural cycle. Big sites get greedy and kill off the user base for a payout and we go to the next one. The fact reddit kept alive for so long is surprising but it take a lot for people to bother moving.
Also pretty much everyone 25-45 in my local area is still very much using Facebook.
The hit Twitter suffered might be bigger than you think: Yahoo Finance (from Bloomberg) link
twitter was overvalued. reddit has made a lot of questionable business decisions over the last decade or so but their recent API change will be their death knell. it feel like a cash grab. I personally only use Twitch to watch Bob Ross reruns :P
Well, while it is surprising it's all happening within a year or so, it's not unexpected at all.
They're ultimately for-profit companies. They have openly demonstrated the obvious truth that when push comes to shove, users don't matter to them, at least not as much as money. Our attention was the product.
These companies have proven time and time again that a quick moneygrab will win over retaining the people who make the site work. capitalism 101 baby.
Yep, think of the math like this:
1000 users that we can get $1 of profit from totalling $1000 profit
Or 500 users we can get $3 of profit from totalling $1500 profit.
$1500 > $1000 Therefore it's a good decision.
Welcome to the mind of corporate executives
Source: I work with these dumbasses
From Cory Doctorow:
Here is how platforms die: First, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.
https://www.wired.com/story/tiktok-platforms-cory-doctorow/
Some of it is because we had a decade of cheap borrowing which has come to an end and many of these platforms were never profitable.
please can youtube be next?
I really want to stop using my google account and that's the only thing keeping me from moving away from it.
The issue with replacement for YouTube is that it needs to be both sustainable AND pay the professional content creator. This is not an easy task and the main reason why alternatives are usually running behind a subscription service.
The twitter thing is sad, but honestly not a huge deal. I rarely used it anyhow.
The reddit thing is depressing, since I've been a huge supporter and user of Apollo for many years. It feels like getting stepped on and I feel for the developer Christian Selig who devoted so much time and energy to the app.
I hope nothing happens to Twitch in the way that Twitter and Reddit have though, the small time streamers I follow and support won't survive a thing like that.
Reddit has so many small communities that the people in charge have absolutely no care for. I hope one of these services takes hold as a clear Reddit replacement so that they can be built back up.
I think this is the most tragic thing about leaving Reddit... The tech subs, the politics subs - those are easy communities to make replacements for on any platform. But the in-depth analyses and discussions of Star Wars lore or joke communities around Garfield will be tougher to replicate I think.
Yeah, I heard someone pitching the old let "AI" handle it line. Machine learning can't moderate those communities to even a mediocre standard. It's just too variable, subjective and nuanced. Even actual members of communities can be crappy at moderating them!
As a mod of a small community on reddit, I'm weary of building up from scratch again. The sub is about polls, which isn't a feature on Lemmy. So I guess I'll just give up on my moderating hobby for now.
Same, but ReddPlanet. I paid for Redd, but not Apollo because you can’t convince me to pay for something if I don’t have a chance to see if the features are worth it.
ReddPlanet, slide, Relay were all amazing.
I recently saw my wife use the official Reddit app. I… can’t take that kind of user experience.
What about switching back to YouTube from twitch? Some streamers I follow stream on both.
Higher interest rates means less investment, resulting in these companies racing to make a profit. The reality is that Reddit is bleeding money and has been for years, and Twitter is barely profitable.
This Lemmy migration does feel like waaaaay more positive of a result than I ever expected from reddit getting worse.
I've always appreciated the idea of the fediverse, but mastodon and the twitter-style of social media has never appealed to me, and Lemmy used to be so tiny and niche, so I didn't invest much time in it until now. But this sure is nice, comparatively. I'm probably on here too much though!
I think this is "normal" and the previous status was a glitch due to the low interest rates. Investors threw money at tech companies and didn't care whether they made any money. Not any more. It's now "make money or go bust". I am not sayiny these new trends will make them money, but IMHO it's what's driving them
Doctorow's Enshittification describes it pretty much dead-on. It's basically the cancerous form of late-stage capitalism that we're living under now.
We've reached the end of the VC-funded golden age where they are all now demanding a return on their investment, hence why the screws are now all getting tightened.
I’m honestly surprised it even got this far. It was just common sense to me, even a decade ago, that companies that burned through VC cash and tried building up user bases with little regard for actual profitability couldn’t possibly keep it up forever.
They saw Lemmy becoming successful, corporate mistook Lemmy with Lemmings, and decided to go out Lemmings style.
...jokes aside, Cory Doctorow has a great text about that, called "Tiktok's enshittification". It's a four-steps process:
- The platform is good for its users.
- The platform abuses the users, to be good for its business customers.
- The platform abuses the business customers, to claw back all value for itself.
- The platform dies.
In my opinion it's also the result of management being disconnected from the platform that it manages, and not knowing fully the implications of their own decisions.
The big sites got big by being there when a previous big site died. But nothing lasts forever, and eventually a social site becomes desperately uncool because there are people old enough to have grandkids on it. And they totter on, like a zombie, until they fuck out badly, and most people leave. But not everyone, I still get linked to blog entries on Livejournal now and then, sometimes I even end up on Blogger when I’m following a trail and people are still updating some of those.
I suspect that we're at end-stage capitalism, essentially every company feels they should be constantly making record profits and they think of predicted profits as granted, when they didn't reach predicted profits it was seen as losing money which in the CEO's eyes meant they needed to increase their income to make up for losses and the only way for companies that rely on user generated content for revenue was increased advertising which is the route youtube is currently going for the rest they had no way they could see to increase their income till elon decided to crash twitter with introducing the payed blue checkmark. What we saw when elon did that was a failing company but what twitch and reddit saw was an opportunity to not be blamed for following musks example, funnily enough though they fucked up on the attempt and everyone saw them as money grabbing
People aren't reacting to this sudden interference with content aggregation with as much outrage and fear as they should.
The thing that Twitter, reddit, and so many other sites that have recently been bought up and swallowed, do so well is aggregate information for us. It provides us a pool of information, with which we as a collective society can sift through and analyze together through the lens of our experience, our professionalism, and our intelligence.
Before these types of sites, we were segregated and isolated. As much as I miss forums, for the most part they became bubbles that hyperfocused on singular categories. This kept us in our place. This kept us from venturing out and sampling things that were different and other. When sites like Fark took off, we suddenly had insight into things we may never have had interest in or knowledge of before.
Corporations and governments are trying to dismantle aggregation because it keeps us informed and it keeps us involved. It informs us of the other, and allows us to co-mingle in an environment where we might be exposed to new ideas and new ways of doing things that were otherwise not available.
We shouldn't just be lamenting the downfall of reddit due to our lack of entertainment. We should be very, very afraid of the day when the only way you can find 'other' information is by using very specific search terms.
People in power have been working very hard for a very long time to take us back to a time before the Internet, and a time before aggregation. What I sincerely hope comes out of this is the realization that we are all stronger together with our complex variety of ideas and perspectives, and our ability to question things and provide information to each other.
In case anyone has forgotten, Twitter is a lifeline to many corners of the world most of us will never touch and have no way of accessing otherwise. Twitter was the tool for dozens of uprisings and protests around the world. Twitter was the catalyst for so many young people to connect and realize that the situation they were in could be changed. And that's been taken away. It's been made a joke, and people are leaving in droves. People whose experience and support could help the next protest. That's exactly what they want.
But what do I know, I'm just a rando on the internet, who may be able to tell you the answer to your very niche question, who may say just the right thing when you're needing support, or who may pass on your story to someone else who knows a journalist, which may lead to your voice or your injustice being heard.
They're trying to isolate you. Don't let them.