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You say that, But it's went from +3 Biden, to +7 trump in those 4 years...
And Jacksonville mayor?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Jacksonville_mayoral_election#Results
Dems did win the runoff by about 9k votes, but...
A city going barely blue in no way makes up for statewide polling.
Biden needs to be shoring up support in the States he barely won that got him into the White House last time, not taking them for granted and attacking Florida in 2024.
Gotta be careful with polling results. By necessity they're weighted to match the most recent turn out demographics. Which is usually just a bit of an error range. With issues like abortion and weed, the younger vote changes a lot more than the polling algorithm. So the error bars are huge, and adjustments to add accuracy are most likely to just wrong. It's one of the two major reasons for upsets at the ballot box. The other being the Bradley effect, which could also be very much in play the other direction.
Consider that the 7% lead Trump has right now is the average from two polls with less than a 4% error, that were 5% apart from each other. So at least one of them is just blatantly wrong, and really the odds are it's both.