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this post was submitted on 25 Feb 2024
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You remember when everyone was predicting that we are a couple of years away from fully self-driving cars. I think we are now a full decade after those couple of years and I don't see any fully self driving car on the road taking over human drivers.
We are now at the honeymoon of the AI and I can only assume that there would be a huge downward correction of some AI stocks who are overvalued and overhyped, like NVIDIA. They are like crypto stock, now on the moon tomorrow, back to Earth.
Two decades. DARPA Grand Challenge was in 2004.
Yeah, everybody always forgets the hype cycle and the peak of inflated expectations.
Waymo exists and is now moving passengers around in three major cities. It's not taking over yet, but it's here and growing.The timeframe didn't meet the hype but the technology is there.
Yes, the technology is there but it is not Level 5, it is 3.5-4 at best.
The point with a full self-driving car is that complexity increases exponentially once you reach 98-99% and the last 1-2% are extremely difficult to crack, because there are so many corner cases and cases you can't really predict and you need to make a car that drives safer than humans if you really want to commercialize this service.
Same with generative AI, the leap at first was huge, but comparing GPT 3.5 to 4 or even 3 to 4 wasn't so great. And I can only assume that from now on achieving progress will get exponentially harder and it will require usage of different yet unknown algorithms and models and advances will be a lot more modest.
And I don't know for you but ChatGPT isn't 100% correct especially when asking more niche questions or sending more complex queries and often it hallucinates and sometimes those hallucinations sound extremely plausible.
Quantuum computing is going to make all encryption useless!! Muwahahahahaaa!
. . . Any day now . . Maybe- ah! No, no thought this might be the day, but no, not yet.
Any day now.
If you're able to break everybody's encryption, why would you tell anybody?
If you were able to generate near life-like images and simulacrams of human speech why would you tell anyone?
Money. The answer is money.
Quantum computing wouldn't be developed just to break encryption, the exponential increase in compute power would fuel a technological revolution. The encryption breaking would be the byproduct.