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Another Canada 93? Tory Sunak critics fear extinction-level election result
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2024
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This is the best summary I could come up with:
This is the model for the “extinction-level event” experienced by a previously dominant rightwing party – one that some Tory opponents of Rishi Sunak warn he risks emulating at the next general election.
There are some curiously precise parallels: a complacent conservative incumbent that had recently ditched its leader (Kim Campbell replacing Brian Mulroney) was struggling with the economy and faced a new, insurgent rightwing party – called Reform.
It is certainly true that while a post-election tally of two feels unrealistic, the vagaries of FPTP means it would not take a massive shift in polling for the total number of Tory MPs to drop dramatically.
There are a number of significant differences from Canada in 1993, however, including the near disappearance of the Progressive Conservatives’ representation in Quebec amid the rise of the separatist Bloc Québécois.
Lord Hayward thinks it is unlikely that the Tories will win fewer than 100 seats, arguing that the rise of Reform could hamper Lib Dem appeal for anti-Tory protest voters.
Anand Menon, the director of the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe and a professor of European politics at King’s College London, co-authored a 2022 study that examined the parallels with 1993.
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