this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2024
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People love to say things like this but it's kinda ridiculous, pretty much every new tech is hugely successful. Those battery advances that no one really believes in? You've probably got one of them in your hand now, you're probably physically closer to someone using chatGPT than you are to someone reading a book - if not you almost certainly met more people today who have used gpt more recently than they've read from a book. Vr adoption continues to grow, automation solutions are getting installed all over the place at a rapid rate, electric cars are gaining market share, whole countries are using desalination for their water supply, everyone that's said anything about Osiris rex has been excited about the move towards space based industry.
The bulk of the population is loving the endless tech upgrades and eager for more, yeah not everything is good and most people are adult enough to realise that.
(No I did not read the article, someone said it was shit and I don't doubt them)
It’s only gonna be 10 more years, I promise.
Complex tech takes time to develop, who'd have guessed!
I'm sorry homie but VR is going nowhere. No one outside of a small, niche community even cares about it anymore.
I think VR is doing OK
According to Steam has more number users than either Mac or Linux
And just Quest 2 alone has 20 millions unit sold, same number as XBOX Series X/S that released on the same year
I don't think the situation is that bad
20 million sold. 19 million units covered in dust in some box you never check
Seems anecdotal at best— I play beat Sabre at least a few times a week with the family, which is ironically, still anecdote.
Ha ok, we'll see how that prediction pans out.
Yes the expensive and complex products available today limit the audience which in turn lowers the attractiveness of the market to creators which further inhibits uptake, the exact same thing is clearly visible in the home computer adoption curve and many similar developments.
First adopters create an ecosystem of markets which results in a growing diversity of established use cases - many ideas fail but some prove to be very efficient and effective as part of a workflow which over going becomes the standard way of doing things.
As there are more things for which vr becomes established it transitions from being something major creators don't really bother with to something that they make a show of supporting - especially as the general ecosystem has become established so things like which menu style to use or how to orientate views have become easy choices. This changes vr from being niche special use to a fairly general tool that a lot of people are used to using.
At that point we'll see a lot of cheap consumer devices which results in a lot more development on the market, especially as natural language input through LLMs make control interfaces easier and similar generative ai make creating vr environments easier.
Vr is going to be something that most people are used to using somewhat regularly, I don't think it'll replace screens but there's a lot of things that we currently do on a screen that will just make more sense in vr
Ha ok, we will see how that prediction plays out, indeed. VR is a dumbass joke that very few people care about. If anything it's been made the butt of even more jokes since Ready Player One came out and emphasized that the dregs of society will just use it as escapism, if we're lucky enough to have a universal basic income.
Trailer trash using it for stupid purposes, and getting real work done with it is still pathetic.
VR is going no-where fast, and the fad has moved on. Even Valve has a shiny new toy to play with as the Steam Deck keeps selling. Nobody cares, and that's ok, because it's a stupid useless tech still.
This sound like a take from some one who never tried vr games or used a vr headset... Once you use even current quest 2/3 you will quickly realize the possibilities and advantages vr can have...the issue is the tech is still not quiet there yet for average consumer (and it was not even close for last 20 years for sure)...we need better compact graphics processing units, and denser screens with better optics designs..these will all happen in time. Assuming we don't die from global warming or ww3. Once the hurdle of high cost/low dpi/relatively limited processing power of now is overcome, vr/ar will be defacto standard for PC gaming and work, as using fixed screens will be inefficient/more expensive. I would use my quest pro for work if it had 40% higher dpi/clarity and I cn easily see the tech getting there in 2-3 years time. Mobile GPU power will take a decade to run games with graphics of today ( I am referring to stand alone headsets, as pcvr is to cumbersome for casual gaming, this will improve with better software and wifi development but wifi 6 is bearly good enough today, so we likely see wifi7 come along and usher in dedicated headsets with console coupling (e.g. wireless VR headset + PlayStation ) (better mobile processors for faster decoding will help a ton as well). Vr/Ar will continue to grow and once it gets critical mass will explode as we are seeing with electric cars.
I bought a Rift cv1, Rift S, Quest and Quest 2, so much for your pretentious first sentence.
You’re droning on about how it’s still just around the corner “if only we had” with reference to smaller processing units etc. VR is still bullshit until all those “if only we had” things are here.
You think VR is a joke but bought 4 HMDs?
IKR! I bought in on its future, and it was always "Welllllll the NEXT one will be the big breakthrough!" and it keeps being screen door effect, fatigue issues, light leakage, and just left wanting. I'm an opponent over it because it's always been overhyped. Some of the best killer apps abandoned the platforms due to the lack of revenue, and the dream has just been a dream this entire time.
I'm viciously opposed, BECAUSE I was so vested in it and watched generation after generation of the same bullshit "next time it'll be the real breakthrough" when it's always just janky.
Looking at how stupid people look wearing Apple Vision Pro's, it just reminds me of big tech promising a revolution with Google Glass only to become a mockery of itself. There are some curious architecture and art applications alongside drone flights, but that's very niche.
Ah I should have guessed your opinion comes from a weird type of elitist nonsence but I can play that game too if you like...
You're only thinking about the world you know which appears to be shitty movies and being a gamer that's decided you're not like the degenerate games you're high class, ok bud but I doubt that's how s casual observer sees it and I think you know that which is why you put on such a show to p distance yourself from what you recognise if your set. So shove your classism up your ass and grow up.
People with actual important things going on have been using vr for years, they did fucking surgery on a grape for fuck sake! While the surgeons were extoling the wonders of VR for complex remote surgery using hyper advanced robotics what the fuck were you doing? Bitching that the console noobs don't have the same high culture as pc gamers?
When the USAF flies the F-35 and the pilot puts on his HMDS with the Distributed Aperture System do you think it's because they're trailer trash junkies looking for a distraction or maybe because billions of dollars of research went into creating the absolute best control system and it turned out that's very clearly VR?
And the drone operators, the architects, the astronauts at nasa who use it... They just haven't realised it's stupid and useless, only an enlightened pc gamer like yourself is wise enough to realise there's no use for it.
Vr has proven to institutions that have the money and tech to use it that it's incredibly useful, as tech improves and ecosystems get established we will see it move towards ubiquity there's no doubt about that.
Lol, the only grapes here are your sour grapes that people don't give a fuck about VR except for shiny toys and things that run up medical bills for equipment surgeons don't need, making healthcare costs worse.
Also don't make me laugh about the F-35. Look up "Boondoggle". As for professional uses, drone operators are about your only successful use case. Everything else is just an expensive toy looking for a purpose.
You wouldn't be so salty if you weren't insulted that VR is a ridiculous joke.
F35 went over budget and behind schedule but it's an incredibly effective combat aircraft
Sure, no argument there. There's just stuff like this
Source: https://theconversation.com/what-went-wrong-with-the-f-35-lockheed-martins-joint-strike-fighter-60905 (sub sources cited as well including military journals and declassified documents from the Air Force).
There are other gems out there about the F35 including how obsolete weapons from 1999 can penetrate its stealth capabilities, hone in on its radar cross section, and shoot it down.
But y'know, kinda like this VR pipe dream, don't let facts get in the way of delusion. Let's just pretend it's all great.
Just like hydrogen cars, in ten years it's going to be big. (10 years later) in ten years everyone is going to be using it. (10 years later) etc...
Of course new tech is used in industry but consumer products are a different story. And it's complex. People like spending money on stuff, it makes them feel better, so when the world gets depressing they buy things. Also, a side effect of not being able to afford a home is that people have more disposable income to spend on toys. Why save money if you will never save enough? So yes, people buy new products but do they really buy them because they are exited about new tech? I doubt it. You can easily run a 10 year old laptop and (if you're lucky and it's not broken) 5 year old phone today and you wouldn't be missing anything. No one really asked for AI, 5G and AR.
But this is not true, everyone has been asking for better internet speed and natural language computing. 5G was required because everyone is online all the time, yeah people aren't hyped about it because it's boring but if we didn't have 5g and archaic infrastructure didn't scale with demand then you bet people would be yelling about it - when a train goes by there's a hundred people using mobile internet, likely none of them care about 5g but they love being able to work, chat and browse the internet on their journey.
Ai is absurdly beneficial to people already and it's incredibly early days, again people aren't going to be especially hyped by most it's uses, in fact they won't notice most of them but it'll help fix a lot of things that really annoy or negatively affect them.
As someone who has spent a lot of time learning about and designing GUIs I can tell you that designing a system to give all the different user sets and types the controls they need is super complex - as someone who actually programs them I can assure you implementing whatever system is created to do this is even more painfully difficult. Now imagine not having to do that, imagine I can make a tool and the user just has to say 'import this old file in an obscure format then do these obscure but relatively simple things...' this is huge from a development point of view and even huger from a user point of view.
Ever have a family member ask you for the tenth time how to find their emails? Or hand you a device you've never seen before and say 'can you change the font size' and you have to go through menus and Google how to do it? Soon it'll be fairly standard to just tell things what you want and for them to actually understand.
This is just one small benefit that LLMs and natural language computing bring, I could list other benefits for days
I didn't say it's not useful, I said people are not buying products because of them. People are not running to the stores to get the new 5G phone. I remember 4G roll-out and it was a big thing. You suddenly could use the internet the same way you did at home. With 5G there are no new usecases. You're not going to watch 4K movie on your phone. LLMs also don't sell devices. Siri and Alexa were kind of interesting when they came out and sold many smart speakers but LLMs are a tool, not a gadget.
I also didn't read the article but there is something to it. Are you exited about Threads the same way everyone was exited about gmail? Are you exited about Vision Pro the same way everyone went crazy for the iPhone? More and more often I'm searching for a product now and simply end up disappointed. There are no smart watches I would like to buy (the new features they have are all useless), new phones have less features (where's my headphones jack? where's my hardware keyboard?), the best new thing about laptops is flat RAM... Consumer products have stalled. It's all gimmicks now instead of actually interesting features. I think it's all good enough and we simply don't have the tech to offer actual breakthrough in usability.
We thought that with the blackberry. We thought that with vacuum tubes. We that that with chip scaling.
Thinking that will make it true.
I didn't say such breakthrough is not possible. Just that it didn't happen yet so most new products are gimmicks. When they will come up with actual improvement we will know.
lol, there was no article, that was the irony. Just like the promises of big tech for the past 5 years, and all we're seeing is endless stupid fads and gargantuan wastes of resources.
It's their ad/intro for their pod cast shrug
Aren't we still using the same old Lithium ion batteries from 20 years ago?
Ha yeah in the same way we're still using the same old pn semiconductor wafers from the 90s - it's basically the same thing which is why I still use my p120 and it's just as good as any of these modern machines with their fancy 7nm pathways!
The batteries used today are much better than old batteries and the manufacturing technologies are far superior also, it depends on the device of course but energy density, charge speed, reliability has increased also manufacturing cost and requirements, low lithium batteries are getting more common for example.
Plus it's getting increasingly likely that the lithium in your battery has already been a different battery previously thanks to new recycling methods so that's pretty cool.
You're right that it's refined more but I was more hoping for a truly different combination. What we've done to li-ion seems akin to how we refined combustion engines.
To truly achieve a massive performance leap it seems like we need an actual different combination. I recall CATL making sodium-ion batteries. Lithium is still a rather scarce metal which poses a problem for mass production.
Yeah its weird tech is moving so absurdly fast at that moment that people seem to have gotten used to huge breakthroughs and want one ever week, like with ai how astonishing developments aren't even implemented yet but people are saying it's not impressive or development has stalled.
There's a lot of really good stuff that's coming to market slowly, the main problem is lithium is so cheap and easy at the moment that it's not really worth it for anyone to take a risk on something new. It is happening but it'll take a while for the special use cases to filter though and it to reach a more general market.
Another good example is wave power, there are now working commercial devices and very successful test projects but because it's complex and still has high planning and development costs associated with it everyone is sticking to wind and solar. There will be a point soon where tidal generation sneaks into common use just like desalination did
Hardly anyone is even aware how many of the areas we got told would have water wars now have desalination partnerships and plenty of water to go round. They can even extract lithium in the same process and we're starting to see that getting built too.
I think the real thing is going to be when the various strands of ai combine with the incredibly good robotics we have developed over the last few decades, people are going to be shocked how much it'll speed up every physical industry. Being able to show the robot 'this surface here needs to be sanded smooth ready for spraying' and it can understand the request, evolve a movement solution and continually check it's work as it goes.
The problem is everyone knows that's coming and it's a game changer so no one is really interested in the amazing advances we keep making or the more basic tools. Companies aren't going to invest five years researching and developing the sort of product we can make now when they know other companies as already investing big in general purposes tools that'll ruin all those markets.
Yup, no refinements, advancements or chemistry changes at all. Exact same, yup.
Chemistry changes?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15355-0
Interesting
Considering that this article comes from Vice I'm not surprised.