Because there are a ton of new manufacturing facilities for wind and solar under construction, so you expect to see a sudden jump. The IEA then assumes no further policy changes to cause adoption rates to increase at the same rate as that jump.

[–] gandalf_der_12te@feddit.de 1 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

I would say it is, because the IEA cannot take the responsibility for it, if it really does grow exponentially.

Like, what if that exponential grow stops for any reason. People are gonna blame the IEA for overestimating our abilities, potentially causing negative side-effects.

So, the IEA tries to "play it safe" with their prognosis.