this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2023
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Does have this have the potential to release a radioactive fallout cloud across western Europe?
Depends on how it's done. If they do it the dirty bomb way and winds are unfavorable, sure it could happen, but they'd have to basically set off their own nuke in the plant to make a cloud that would significantly affect anyone outside Ukraine. If they just let it melt down, probably not but it'll wreck the plant and the area immediately nearby.
Still, couldn't hurt to pick up a pack or two of iodine tablets just in case.
Not sure what the winds are like in that area normally,
But at the moment, they are VERY unfavorable for Russia. It would blow back in their face,
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=34.83,49.15,2074/loc=31.584,43.246
That's part why them fucking about at Chernobyl was highly concerning.
Nature and soil in that area have absorbed much of the damaging materials, if Russia were to set fire to the forests there, all that would be released and spread across a wide area.
The one thing holding them back is that depending on the wind, this fallout can just as easily contaminate Russia as it can the rest of Europe.
Same with this instance, especially since the nuclear plant is also close to Russia. They may try to disable it to sabotage the electricity, but damaging it in a way that creates fallout will pose as much a risk to their own land as it does to Europe.
And then you realize that Russia doesn't give a shit about its own people or apparently any territory outside Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
And you realize those considerations are rational and Russia and its leadership can't be considered a rational actor at any point anymore.
No. But it will render the plant inoperable and a mess to clean up.
Why are you saying no? This seems naive and overly optimistic. Explosions at nuclear plants in that area could absolutely spread across Europe unless Russia is extremely careful, and probably even then.
And it's Russia, so forget careful.
If the Russians cause a meltdown, it will almost certainly be more like Three Mile Island than Chernobyl. i.e. the radioactive mess will be completely contained inside the giant lead impregnated concrete box that surrounds the giant steel pressure chamber that contains the reactor.
That was the lesson of Chernobyl, build a giant ass containment system to soak up an internal explosion. This is why the plant has survived being shelled by the Russian multiple times.
So no, there won't be a giant cloud of radioactive material. There's a containment vessel to keep it all inside, and more importantly, reactors are designed to not explode anymore. Turns out you can design them to just melt instead.
It's still going to be a bitch to clean up, but unless the Russians specifically plant bombs in and around the containment vessel, and then trigger those bombs after a melt down is in progress, the plant will likely contain all radioactive material.
The worst effects on the region as a whole will be the loss of power, and a site that cannot be used to rebuild a plant without tearing the entire thing to the ground and starting over, with added clean up needed at every step of the process.
Yes.
Yes and no. Yes, it could release radioactive particles across western Europe. No, it wouldn't just affect Europe - it would likely also spread fairly quickly around the world depending on the damage and atmospheric conditions.