this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2023
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also, if the West did adopt EVs en mass (hard to even imagine), all those ICE vehicles aren't just disappearing. They're getting exported to the rest of the world as cheap used cars. Nothing has been "replaced", you've just made more cars and more pollution.
@TheLastHero @Masimatutu Nah, there's not much intercontinental transport of used cars. Too expensive and complicated. If the West adopted EVs en mass there would be a lot less gasoline consumption there, and little increase elsewhere.
I disagree. The UN predicts the number of light duty vehicles to more than double by 2050, with 90% of that growth happening in non-OECD countries. Granted that would be a mix of new and used cars, but the vehicle trade is only regulated on the national level. That means there are considerable financial incentives to export abroad and take advantage of regulatory inconsistency.
For example, stricter emissions laws means that many cars may not be able to be driven at all in a country, but those laws do not exist elsewhere- that will cause an oversupply of cars that can't be legally sold domestically, but demand for cars is only grow in the global south as their economies and standards of living improve. Logistic and shipping costs also get cheaper every year and shouldn't be relied on as a economic deterrent, and it's apparently already cheap enough for the US, Japan, and EU to export 14 million used vehicles between 2015-2018. Rich counties and their populations tend to replace their cars far before their economic life is over as well, and vehicle values depreciate far quicker in the OECD compared to elsewhere. There's going to be a lot of economic pressure to export more cars in the near future, especially if the OCED countries try to get "serious" about ICE vehicles without including the rest of the world in a global agreement.
Let's spend the EV money on a time machine and drop a comically large anvil on Henry Ford