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Hey tech billionaires, if you want to talk about radical change, let’s abolish venture capitalism
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 01 Nov 2023
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The final summary of the article you linked:
"Using 105,950 observations from 32 different studies we find that CVC investments are performance enhancing, for both corporations and start-ups. Our results detect that time, country, and industry moderate the effects. Especially after the Dotcom bubble burst, high performance is detected. Similarly, the performance in the U.S. outreaches the performance of other countries. Due to the high risk of successfully developing a pharmaceutical drug, no statistically significant effect of CVC investments in the health care industry is observed. As expected, strategic performance outperforms financial impacts. Although there is good rationale for a clear strategic focus, the finding that CVC investment does not lead to stronger financial performance is surprising and urges practitioners to rethink their CVC objectives and approach"
Disregarding the fact that this is only looking at CVCs and not traditional VCs, I don't think this really supports your argument that it is a dice roll at best. Seems to me like it is broadly beneficial with some caveats.