this post was submitted on 12 Oct 2023
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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How criminalisation is being used to silence climate activists across the world (www.theguardian.com)
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[–] perestroika@slrpnk.net 7 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

Authoritarian tactics to suppress protest typically intend to have a chain of effects like this:

  • protest will decrease
  • those who protest will protect themselves better, legally (in terms of planning and considering how to avoid charges)
  • those who protest will protect themselves better, physically (in terms of not being detained and overcoming the police)
  • in the second scenario, police will then be able to depict the protests as "violent" and call it an "insurrection"
  • consequently, they can press heavier charges against anyone they do manage to detain
  • organizing a protest becomes dangerous
  • participating in a protest will be perceived as dangerous
  • people with families and a job and elderly people will fear to participate
  • protest will lose effect due to few participants
  • that will prompt some individuals to anonymous protest and actual sabotage
  • nobody should want that, yet that's where the path leads to

The solutions?

  • fixing the problematic laws via political process, adding a freedom-of-protest agenda to other goals
  • disputing the problematic laws where the legal system allows (appealing to constitutions, conventions and charters)
  • bypassing the laws after analysis, protesting in ways that cannot be criminalized
  • in rare cases where it's worthwhile and there is exceptional mass support, just ignoring the laws, because if there's a million people blocking streets for some reason, cops are powerless

All of that won't be doable in every country, and in some countries, something else might be doable instead.