SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk reportedly caused a geopolitical crisis last year, when Ukrainian forces—which have relied heavily on the company’s Starlink satellite communications—were on the verge of striking Russian naval vessels off the coast of Crimea with submersible drones. Concerned that the attack would provoke Russia into using nuclear weapons, Musk unilaterally opted to sever the submarines’ satellite connection, throwing a wrench in the entire assault.
The incident—shared by CNN based on an adapted excerpt from an upcoming book by Walter Isaacson—demonstrates Musk’s increasing unwillingness to lend his satellite network to offensive maneuvers waged by Ukraine. “How am I in this war?” “Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.”
After foiling the attack, Musk reportedly received a desperate text from a Ukrainian deputy prime minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, who asked that Musk reinstate the Starlink connection to the drones. “I just want you—the person who is changing the world through technology—to know this,” Fedorov wrote. But Musk refused to reverse course, telling Fedorov that Ukraine “is now going too far and inviting strategic defeat.”
Apparently he was worried that the assault would provoke nuclear war. Musk showing actual thought for the first time in ever.
It would be better for them if they didn't, and it would be better for the whole world if the West didn't help them do it. Because every action has a reaction, and Russia has escalation dominance in Ukraine. Thus the more provocative attacks that the Kiev regime undertakes the worse the consequences of the Russian proportional response will be for Ukraine. And the more the West tries to hurt Russia the worse the backlash on them will be, as we can see with the failure of the sanctions that have devastated Europe while just making Russia stronger.
The smartest thing Ukraine could have done would have been to not start this war in the first place. The second smartest thing would be to stop fighting, else it will just get more and more destroyed.
Whether or not you or i consider the use of nukes justifiable does not change the fact that many states around the world including Russia and the US have a different view on this. We need to deal with reality not with wishful fantasies or moralistic grandstanding. And in reality nuclear states faced with an existential threat will very likely use every weapon at their disposal.
And don't think that we can push Russia just up to the nuclear threshold and then simply stop there. It doesn't work that way. An escalation spiral has its own momentum. So far Russia has been extremely patient and restrained in terms of retaliating against the West for its participation in planning and facilitating attacks on Russia and Russian forces. But the West's involvement in this is already at a level that Russia would be fully justified in viewing as a declaration of war against them.
Don't be surprised and don't cry "unprovoked attack" when Russia one day decides to respond accordingly. Again, it would be in the West's best interests to not gamble on Russia's patience lasting forever while we continue to escalate. Russia doesn't need nukes to inflict significant damage on NATO and the US's assets in and around Europe.