this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2023
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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Russian propagandists tell people what they want to hear. For longtermists like Muskovitj, it's fear of Global Thermonuclear War. For trads, it's Orthodox faith and subjugation of women. For fascists, it's implied antisemitism and general racism. For tankies, it's having a counterweight to American imperialism.
The stupid thing is that medium to long term, Musk would sell more Teslas and Starlinks to a free unoccupied Ukraine than a broke Russia under permanent sanctions. But I guess he finds the other arguments intriguing.
I don't think Musk is a man driven by what is in his self interest. He has some underlying pathology that drives him to be his own worst enemy. He's a lot like Trump in that regard.
Personally my mental model of Musk is that whenever he does something, I think, “is this what an idiot who thinks he will eventually go to mars would do?” Then it’s really a matter of figuring out the path to the answer being yes. Can’t go to mars if you die from nuclear war, or something. I don’t try very hard to think about this.
he is absolutely practicing which buttons to push to end an eventual Martian worker rebellion
@swlabr @wagesj45
Can't go to Mars if your massive satellite constellation (plus competitors) results in enough space junk to make reaching orbit difficult.
Starlink causing a Kessler event and grounding all spaceflight would be delicious irony, but I believe their orbits are too low for this to be a problem. Instead they just annoy astronomers and Russians.
@gerikson
On the other hand, Kessler wrote: "Some of the most environmentally dangerous activities in space include large constellations such as those initially proposed by the Strategic Defense Initiative in the mid-1980s"
SDI's Brilliant Pebbles originally proposed a 10,000 unit LEO constellation.
Starlink is already close to 5,000, and Musk wants 30,000. Add in the Chinese effort estimated at ~13,000. OneWeb has 500-600 up there.
Ugh apparently it won't stop Starships from fucking off to Mars
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome#Implications
OTOH the faster Musk fucks off the better so ...
@gerikson
"would pose minimal risk for launches continuing past LEO"
I suppose so, and yet you could say the same about aircraft flying over the launch site on launch day. A collision is unlikely due to the speed of the rocket and the short time it would be at aircraft altitudes.
But I'm pretty sure they still don't want anyone flying over the launch pad.
@gerikson
Even if it doesn't rapidly degenerate into a full-blown Kessler Event, I'd have to think there'd be enough going on there to increase uncertainty and risk.
That’s what the flamethrowers are for.